The day war became a certainty

[antryg]

As the reality of a war with Iraq grows in many people, and the chance of peace dims, I can only think back to the day that I knew a war was a certaintly. Time may prove me wrong but I'd like to share my reasoning with you.
It was about a month ago that I watched the news, showing the debarkation of divisional heavy equipment to Iraq. It was while watching that newscast that I realized we were going to have a war unless Sadaam left Iraq. Tonight as I watched the news and heard Sadaam Hussein say that he was ready for war and would not leave Iraq, I knew that the last chance for peace is now gone.

The reason that I feel this way is that during peacetime each division is alloted a yearly budget. Just like a business or private citizen, a division is not allowed to everspend its budget. To transport a divisions equipment to the Middle East basically spends that years budget. Many times American troops are deployed, usually with only light arnaments. Most of the time the presence/threat of American troops alone is enough to cause a diplomatic settlement. The only times that the heavy equipment has been deployed America has actually gone to war, such as in Granada and the Gulf War.

The last of the equipment ships are arriving. A week to maintenance and deploy. A week till war?

[Wutang]

hmmm not sure about budgeting per division but I think the US had a lot of hvy equipment there already even before the buildup began last year especially in Kuwait and saudi Arabia. Stuff that was probably left there in 1991.

Much like in Europe, all the US had to do was physically send the troops there to man the equipment.

It was called pre-positioned supply depots or something like that.

I'm not sure how many divisions the US actually has but it make sense if the US army maintained only 12 divisions total (one per carrier group).

The Marine Corps would be counted separately as they have their own tactical air arm.

[Felix The Assassin]

Well now, ok.
Sadly the Army has less than the 12 divisions you are speaking of (thanks to bill clinton).
Divisional rolling stock is, just that. A division with one series of equipment will not deploy and cover down on "old" model equipment. They will take their own. Hence, the unit that is currently on the ground has their equipment with them. What I think we left in the region after DS was a heavy divisions worth of rolling stock. So as units did a rotation in and out of Kuwait, that is what they used. Both heavy and light units have been doing duty in the region for the last 10 or so years. Nothing new. When a modernized unit completes their NET (new equipment training), that is their equipment. Say for instance, that nice BMW you drive needs to visit the shop for a few days, they wouldn't give you a 72 VW beetle for a loaner. So, per say, a unit has M1A2 SEPs, and get a movement order, they would not cover down on late 80s series M1A1 Heavy Commons.
But, if a unit gets a joint training in a foreign country mission, then only the soldiers will deploy, and cover down on the on site equipment.

Is war a reality? I cannot say. But we are ready!

Felix

[Ziroc]

Originally posted by antryg: As the reality of a war with Iraq grows in many people, and the chance of peace dims, I can only think back to the day that I knew a war was a certaintly. Time may prove me wrong but I'd like to share my reasoning with you. It was about a month ago that I watched the news, showing the debarkation of divisional heavy equipment to Iraq. It was while watching that newscast that I realized we were going to have a war unless Sadaam left Iraq. Tonight as I watched the news and heard Sadaam Hussein say that he was ready for war and would not leave Iraq, I knew that the last chance for peace is now gone. The reason that I feel this way is that during peacetime each division is alloted a yearly budget. Just like a business or private citizen, a division is not allowed to everspend its budget. To transport a divisions equipment to the Middle East basically spends that years budget. Many times American troops are deployed, usually with only light arnaments. Most of the time the presence/threat of American troops alone is enough to cause a diplomatic settlement. The only times that the heavy equipment has been deployed America has actually gone to war, such as in Granada and the Gulf War. The last of the equipment ships are arriving. A week to maintenance and deploy. A week till war?

That was also when I knew War was coming. You don't send HEAVY Armor somewhere unless you know you're going in. (Costs Millions to ship all that into theater). And When I saw that as well as thousands of solders being sent, I decided to re-open this Forum.

[Wutang]

ouch well I never thought very highly of Bill Clinton and it's too bad he reduced the military below 12 divisions. 12 divisions is the min. number I see otherwise it's stretching things a bit.

I figure at least 2-3 divisions are always stationed at home, 1 div in South Korea, 2-3 divs in Germany, and the remaining 5 or so are relegated to whatever roles are assigned to them like in Afghanistan or other hotspots.

I think that 1 hvy armored division should be able to handle the sole task of achieving the mission in Iraq. These other troops there are mainly logistical support staff.

I read somewhere that it takes like 2-3 people in the rear areas just to keep one soldier active in the field and that's where the costs probably are.

So if you hear 225,000 troops in Kuwait, only less than half are actually combat troops.

[ 02-27-2003, 02:37 PM: Message edited by: Wutang ]

[John D Harris]

I was sure a war was a certainty on 11 Sept, 2001 it was just a matter of who, where and when. Somebody was going to pay a high price, any goverment that remotely had any control or contact with Al Quada, supplied, aided, alowed to train in their country that didn't come clean very quickly, was placed on the target list.

[Azred]

I can't say that there was ever a particular date when I became certain that war was an eventuality that simply hasn't happened yet, nor can I pinpoint any date when the Administration decided that war was going to happen. However, once the decision was made to go to war then the time for diplomacy and coalitions has passed, because all the talking has done is give Hussein time to prepare.

To put it politely, one should strike while the iron is hot.

[Felix The Assassin]

Yesterdays Headlines said it all!

1AD, the USs only Armored Division, receives deployment orders!

[Night Stalker]

Pst, Felix .... 3rd AD hasn't been decommissioned and 49th AD is a Guard unit

[Felix The Assassin]

Originally posted by Night Stalker: Pst, Felix .... 3rd AD hasn't been decommissioned and 49th AD is a Guard unit

Intersting.
So, where exactly is 3rd AD?
The 49th is a NG unit as you stated.

1st AD receives deployment orders
1st Armored Division News Release

WIESBADEN, Germany -- The 1st Armored Division has received orders to deploy to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in support of the global war on terrorism and to prepare for future contingencies as may be directed.

The 1st Armored Division, headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, is the U.S. Army’s only armored division and consists of approximately 13,000 soldiers.

For more than 60 years, the “Old Ironsides” division Armored Division has answered the nation’s call. From the sands of Africa to the Balkans, soldiers of the 1st Armored Division have served their country as warriors and peacekeepers – showing the world they are well trained and ready to take on any mission they are given.

Soldiers of the 1st Armored Division are trained and ready to deploy anywhere at any time in support of our nation’s policies.

Here is a link. http://www.hqusareur.army.mil/
It's a public site.

[ 03-06-2003, 11:56 PM: Message edited by: Felix The Assassin ]