Iran's nuclear program and the IAEA

[Skunk]

Some media sources have been praising the United States for it's forceful approach in getting this 'successful' result from Tehran - other's have praised the Europeans for their diplomacy in the getting a good result.

Most articles have not looked at the issue from Iran's point of view - and when they do, they have failed to paint the picture as a victory for Iran - here's one that does:


'Iran's Long-Term Interests at Stake in Decision to Comply with IAEA'
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
ehran's decision to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) demand that Iran temporarily cease its uranium enrichment program, while also agreeing to allow for more stringent inspections of its nuclear facilities, was an effort to proceed with its nuclear research program without giving its two rival states, the United States and Israel, political ammunition to use against the Islamic republic. The main argument that Washington has been able to use in repeated attempts to get the U.N. Security Council to punish Iran for allegedly pursuing nuclear arms was the country's uranium enrichment program. By agreeing to temporarily halt this program, Tehran has weakened Washington's argument.

Enriching uranium is a necessary process to provide fuel to a nuclear reactor in order to create nuclear energy. Enriching uranium can also be used, however, to provide nuclear material necessary for building nuclear weapons. Since Iran has the legal right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, finding a way to prevent the country from enriching uranium has proved difficult. Therefore, Tehran's rival states would like to see it only import enriched uranium, rather than enrich it independently. This would allow greater transparency of Iran's nuclear energy program. Tehran's decision on Tuesday to suspend its uranium enrichment program shows that Iran is willing to accept this state of affairs, albeit it is not clear for how long.

Tehran chose to accept the new restrictions on its nuclear research program because its decision does not limit its opportunity to develop nuclear weapons in the future. By complying with the IAEA, Iran will make it harder for the Bush administration to use the United Nations to institute sanctions on the Iranian state. If the Bush administration cannot acquire the political clout to place international sanctions on the Iranian government, it will work in the interests of Russia, the European Union, India, and other states that have diplomatic and economic relations with Tehran.

Russia, for example, is currently building a nuclear reactor in the city of Bushehr in southern Iran. Moscow also has provided massive supplies of military equipment to Tehran, such as MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Su-24 fighter bombers, T-72 tanks, and Kilo class attack submarines. Moscow is also pursuing the prospect of building more nuclear reactors and facilities in Iran, a development that would help Russia earn much-needed financial capital. Finally, Russia does not want Iran to be weakened by the United States, since Washington is already encroaching on Russia's southern border in Central Asia. If Washington were able to orchestrate a change in government in Tehran -- one that complies with American interests rather than Russian interests -- it would cause a further deterioration in Moscow's security environment along its southern border. Furthermore, it would allow Washington to have increased influence in the oil and gas rich area of the Caspian Sea -- an outcome that Russia would like to avoid.

The European Union has important diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran; it is Iran's biggest trading partner, especially the E.U. states of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. This growing relationship explains why the U.K., France and Germany sent its foreign ministers to help negotiate Iran's decision to comply with the IAEA. The three E.U. countries also promised Tehran that if it complied with IAEA demands, the E.U. would be willing to assist Iran's nuclear research program by giving it greater access to modern technology and supplies. This would allow Iran to buy nuclear technology that has been kept out of its grasp due to 20 years of sanctions.

India, too, has important ties with Iran. India's strategic concerns over its rival state, Pakistan, are shared in part by Iran; therefore, instability in Iran could weaken India's foreign policy leverage when dealing with the leadership in Islamabad. New Delhi and Tehran have also been collaborating with Russia's state-owned gas company, Gazprom, to build a pipeline that would export gas from Iran to India.

Therefore, the leadership in Tehran has support from important states in its dealings with the Bush administration. By complying with the IAEA demands, Tehran will be able to secure greater assitance from trade partners in the form of modern technology. This assistance would help Iran better understand the methods involved in all aspects of nuclear technology, including the methods of creating nuclear weapons. Outside support would also help Tehran build the necessary infrastructure to increase the country's economic and military stability -- a path that must be followed due to the reality of its main rival state occupying Iraq to the west and Afghanistan to the east.

If Iran is able to convince the IAEA that it is not developing nuclear weapons, the country could be allowed once again to enrich its own uranium for its nuclear reactors. By controlling every aspect of its nuclear research program, Iran would be able to quickly transform its peaceful energy program into a military program. The country would be able to rapidly develop nuclear weapons should it feel threatened by an outside country.

For instance, the comments made by Hassan Rowhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, underscore the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state. Rowhani said that Iran could begin enriching uranium at any time, warning that the suspension of its enrichment program "could last for one day or one year; it depends on us. As long as Iran thinks that this suspension is beneficial for us, it will continue." Rowhani also explained that Iran's suspension of its uranium enrichment program was only temporary, saying, "We believe that stopping enriching uranium is totally unacceptable and we think nobody agrees with [doing] that in Iran."

In conclusion, Tehran's decision to comply with the IAEA will allow it to maintain its nuclear research program. It also takes away political ammunition that could be used by the United States and Israel in attempts to weaken the country through U.N. sanctions. Iran will now be able to increase political and economic relations with the European Union and Russia, likely to the detriment of U.S. interests. Finally, if Tehran becomes threatened by U.S. influence on its eastern and western borders, it could quickly weaponize its nuclear energy program and become a nuclear-armed state, thus helping to insulate it from outside threats.

[Black Baron]

I hardly want to think about the future, when the crazy ayatollah has the bomb. If it could be guaranteed that all he would have would be peacefull electricity, let him choke on that and leave him alone.
the question is:how to guarantee it?

[Skunk]

I think we end up with the time honoured and proven principles of 'Mutually Assured Destruction"...