Bin Laden in Pakistan

[Barb]

Bin Laden could've crossed the border to Pakistan in a low flying helicopter. Not good.


Is he bluffing about having Nuclear weapons? A nuclear weopon flown into a power station would kill an awfull lot of peopl and mutate thousands of babies that had'nt been born yet.

[Ronn_Bman]

Hard to know if he's really still in Afghanistan, but it's doubtful anyone else would take him now. He's a bit too high profile to hide outside Afghanistan and from what they say his best bet is hiding in Afghanistan's mountain caves.

I don't rule it out, but I don't believe the Taliban's statement today anymore than I believed it when they said they knew he was ok but didn't know where he was. [img]smile.gif[/img]

Let's hope his nuke threat was just a threat!

[ 11-17-2001: Message edited by: Ronn_Bman ]

[Ryanamur]

I don't think he's in Pakistan... he's on Malibu beach with a shaven beard [img]smile.gif[/img] [img]smile.gif[/img] [img]smile.gif[/img]

No seriously, I would find it far more probable for him to have escape to the former Soviet territory to the North of Afghanistan. No doubt that the guy is in hiding.

As far as the nuclear threat, only a foul would just dismiss it. Last time Osama gave us fair warning before an attack and we ignored it, four planes were hijacked and over 7,000 people died. My advice, take him seriously has he's got the ressources necessary to acquire or built the weapon once he puts his hand on weapon grade plutonium (which he's been openly trying to do since '93).

[Barry the Sprout]

Considering the amount of Refugees going out of Afghanistan at present the opportunity to sneak over the border would've been high. He is possibly the most recognisable person in the world now but I reckon it could be done. As Ryanmur is saying, underestimating him has cost us dearly in the past. One more person over the border is not going to be noticed in the volume of people making it at present. And then, as Microsoft might say it, "Who do you want to bomb today?".

What I have been trying to say on other threads is that the Taliban's support for Bin Laden didn't make a blind bit of difference to him. he started making bombs with household appliances and he can go back to doing that. But even now he has cash to spend and can spend it from whatever country he likes. The point about Afghanistan being removed as a base of operations is not really all that important in my view. The whole point of Al-queda is that it doesn't need a base of operations. So the dead people are dead for what? All I am saying is that we should just hold our breath for the next terrorist attack. Shouldn't be too long coming.

I doubt he has acess to nuclear weapons. They are quite hard to construct and maintain. We should be more worried about israels nuclear weapons.

[Ronn_Bman]

quote:

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Originally posted by Ryanamur:
No seriously, I would find it far more probable for him to have escape to the former Soviet territory to the North of Afghanistan. No doubt that the guy is in hiding.

Last time Osama gave us fair warning before an attack and we ignored it, four planes were hijacked and over 7,000 people died.

My advice, take him seriously has he's got the ressources necessary to acquire or built the weapon once he puts his hand on weapon grade plutonium (which he's been openly trying to do since '93).

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I don't think he escaped north through the NA or that he escaped recently to Pakistan which has had it's border closed. If he left, it was early on, but his best bet for safety still seems the Afghan mountain caves.

Osama has never given "fair" warning. Saying he wants the destruction of America and something big is coming isn't really the same thing as a warning.

I do think his goal is nuclear weapons, but I doubt his claim of having them. It would tip his hand which he hasn't done before.

[Ryanamur]

quote:

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Originally posted by Dramnek_Ulk:
I doubt he has acess to nuclear weapons. They are quite hard to construct and maintain. We should be more worried about israels nuclear weapons.

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The hard part about building a nuclear weapon is to gain access to the weapons grade plutonium. Once that is done, it's a fairly easy task for someone who knows what he's doing. Now, let's look around to see where he could have got the appropriate grade of plutonium in his immediate region: Pakistan, India, Israel (and one or two other countries in the Middle-East) and finally, ex-USSR. Lot's of place expecially considering that up to about 2 months ago Pakistan was supporting him just as much as the Talibans (and a fair number of the population still does) and that up to a few years ago the ex-USSR was in total dismay when it came to it's nuclear arsenal (and to some extent, still is).

Now to Ronn, Bin Ladden and Al-Queada did give us ALOT of warnings before the 9-11 attacks. In an interview with an American network about a year ago, Al-Qeada's chief operations officier told us that we would pay dearly. The warning was again sent about two months before the attack (interview with dateline or 20/20... I can't remember) when the same individual said that "very soon all the infidels will pay" (or something very similar to this). Finally, another warning came up two weeks before the attack and was dismissed by the CIA. That, in my books, is fair warning... What do you consider a fair warning for a terrorist attack? Would you have been satisfied if they had warned the ticket agents, the luggage attendants, the security personnel at the airport, the gate attendants, the flight attendants, the pilots, the passengers and their family and placed a call to the FBI before they took off telling them that all those flights would be hijacked (the FBI propably would have said it was a prank anyway, how the hell do you hijack 4 planes within a one hour period in the USA?).

Now, do you think the USA warned the Afghans they would be bombed? I think they did. The President himself said "we'll smoke him out of his hole" that was a pretty good indication that a bombing campaing was coming. It's a warning. Did they send out little leaflets saying "tomorow we'll destroy one of your dams. should you be in the vecinity of the dam, we strongly recommend that you seek higher ground as a big tidal wave flowing down valley will follow the destruction of the dam"? No we didn't do this but we still warned them that an attack was coming.

Why would his goal not be nukes. He's been openly trying to get one since 1993 (when I say openly I mean that he's told journalists that he wanted both nuclear and biological weapons even the CIA will admit to this), at least 10 pakistanis nuclear experts admitted to have met with Al-Qeada officials about selling plutonium (all of them deny that they did sell it but frankly, how many do you think would turn down a million US or more in that part of the world?).

Finally, don't forget that the NA alliance only controlled about 15% of Afghanistan before the attacks started (mostly the NE corner stretching in a thin line going Southwestward... more than enough room to flee North, West East and South. But I agree with you that he probably left early on... I dissagree that the safest place for him was in the Afghan caves... the safest place for him is where the US will not be looking for him: in the USA, Mexico or Canada.

As for a route of exit, my guess is that he was dress like a woman wearing a viel (sp). Most people tend to forget that woman were required to wear a viel all the time when they were in public, he could have easilly crossed the border (Iran, Turjikistan, or another stan country to the North and East) dressed as a woman. A perfect disguise in that part of the world (after all, the Israelli police uses the same tactic to infiltrate Palestinian settlements). Now that the Talibans have fallen, they are not required to wear it but some still do because they considered it normal in their religion (if you don't believe me, look around in the US and I'm sure you'll find some that still were the viel even if they are not required to). I really doubt that he's still in Afghanistan but I'm not ruling out the possibility that he could still be!

[ 11-18-2001: Message edited by: Ryanamur ]

[Skunk]

quote:

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Originally posted by Dramnek_Ulk:
I doubt he has acess to nuclear weapons. They are quite hard to construct and maintain. We should be more worried about israels nuclear weapons.

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No, as I said in an earlier post, construction is relatively easy.
Want to see some fairly accurate instructions?

Documentation and Diagrams of the Atomic Bomb

[ 11-19-2001: Message edited by: Skunk ]

[Skunk]

And here are the less serious instructions....

quote:

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Construction Project: ATOM BOMB

• 1. First, obtain about 50 pounds (110Kg) of weapons grade Plutonium at your local supplier (see note 1). A Nuclear Power Plant is not recommended, as large quantities of missing Plutonium tends to make the Plant Engineers unhappy. We suggest that you contact your local Terrorist Organisation or perhaps the Scouts in your neighbourhood.
  2. Please remember that Plutonium, especially pure, refined Plutonium, is somewhat dangerous. Wash your hands with soap and warm water after handling the material, and don't allow your children or pets to play on it, or eat it. Any left over Plutonium dust is excellent as an insect repellant. You may wish to keep the substance in a lead box if you can find one in your local junk yard, but an old coffee can will do nicely.
  3. Fashion together a metal enclosure to house the device. Most common varieties of sheet metal can be bent to disguise this enclosure as, for example, a briefcase, a lunch pail, or a Ford Cortina. Do not however use Tin-foil.
  4. Arrange the Plutonium into two hemi-spherical shapes, separated by about 4 cm. Use rubber cement to hold the Plutonium dust together. Gelignite is much better but messier to work with. Your helpful hardware man will be happy to provide you with this item.
  5. Pack the TNT around the hemisphere arrangement constructed in step 4. If you cannot find Gelignite, feel free to use TNT packed in play-do or any modelling clay. Coloured clay is acceptable, but there is no need to get fancy at this point.
  6. Enclose the structure from step 5 into the enclosure made in step 3. Use a strong glue such as "super glue" to bind the hemi-sphere arrangement against the enclosure to prevent accidental detonation which might result from vibration or mishandling.
  7. To detonate the device, obtain a radio controlled servo mechanism, as found in model planes and cars. With a minimum of effort, a remote plunger can be made that will strike a detonator cap to effect a small explosion. These detonator caps can be found in the electrical supply section of your local supermarket. We recommend the "Blast-O-Matic" brand since they are no deposit-no return.
  8. Now hide the completed device from the neighbours and children. The garage is not recommended because of high humidity and the extreme range of temperatures experienced there. Nuclear devices have been known to spontaneously detonate in these unstable conditions. The hall closet or under the kitchen sink will be perfectly suitable.
  9. Now you are the proud owner of a working Thermonuclear device!! It's a great ice-breaker at parties, and in a pinch could be used for national defence.

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[ 11-19-2001: Message edited by: Skunk ]