Arafat Apparently Near Death

[Azred]

News story is here.

Arafat's death, whenever it happens, will create a brief peace between Israel and Palestinians while the Palestinians fight over who will be in charge. Whoever comes out on top, it will most likely mean an increased chance of a lasting peace; without Arafat as a focus, the Palestinian militants won't be fully unified. Given the current situation, I foresee an Israeli victory...for better or worse.

[Seraph]

That assumes that anyone comes out on top, the Palestinians could easly end up breaking up into factions that all are going after different goals, they have been pretty close to that point for a while now. It has been hard enough to try to calm things down when you could talk to one Palestinian represenative, I can only imagine how bad things would be if there were suddenly four or five different Palestinian groups who didn't feel the need to abide by agreements made by the others.

[johnny]

Even with Arafat in charge the Palestinians were never united. Hamas and Islamic Jihad don't take orders from the PLO or anybody. While Arafat was in France, there was at least one suicide attack that i heard of, dunno who claimed it though. So nothing will change.

[shamrock_uk]

Hmm....I'm not sure about that. Part of Arafat's big problem has been holding back the militant factions and retaining control. It may be hard to visualise for some people, but Arafat was something of a 'moderate' in the PLO and so if he goes, I think the chances for peace will only lessen.

Without him as a focus, the public will rally about the figure most able to unite them, and as so often in the Arab world the best ideology to do this is Islamic extremism. I can't see the more moderate older Palestinians being able to hang on to public support and power in the face of this new younger and dynamic force in Palestinian politics

[aleph_null1]

I'll second Shamrock's doubts. Another of Arafat's problems, from the Palestinian side, is that nothing of substance has been gained in all this mess for quite some time.

The Palestinian people will probably now flock to the extremists in the hopes of actually getting something of value (read: real land).

[Skippy1]

Originally posted by shamrock_uk: Hmm....I'm not sure about that. Part of Arafat's big problem has been holding back the militant factions and retaining control. It may be hard to visualise for some people, but Arafat was something of a 'moderate' in the PLO and so if he goes, I think the chances for peace will only lessen. Without him as a focus, the public will rally about the figure most able to unite them, and as so often in the Arab world the best ideology to do this is Islamic extremism. I can't see the more moderate older Palestinians being able to hang on to public support and power in the face of this new younger and dynamic force in Palestinian politics

You can't seriously describe Arafat as a moderate and keep a straight face can you Shamrock? I can only think that your young,(no insult intended here mate) and haven't had the benefit(?) of hearing about this conflict for as long as I have.

Have a read of this and then we'll continue our discussion.

http://www.usainreview.com/2_27_Forgotten_Terrorist.htm

Don't be fooled by the benign light that he has been painted in in the last decade or so. He has been, and I suspect has right up to now, been in full control of terrorist ops coming out of Palestine for a long time now. Presidents and Prime Ministers have come and gone, but he always remained. He had an almost innate knack of twisting the media to his own advantage to deflect attention from his own involvement. This has always been his strength. The region will be better off without him. It may cause a lot of trouble initially, but the area is still better off without him.

[ 11-05-2004, 11:51 AM: Message edited by: Skippy1 ]

[Timber Loftis]

Nice article, Skippy. Arafat led the PLO; PLO = terrorist. Real easy, no great mental leap.

[Skippy1]

Originally posted by Timber Loftis: Nice article, Skippy. Arafat led the PLO; PLO = terrorist. Real easy, no great mental leap.

Giday Timber, long time mate.

It really bugs me when I see him on the news blowing kisses and shaking anyones hand that they don't manage to snatch away in time. The bloke should have been taken out a long time ago.

Having said that though, I don't think a lot of Ariel Sharon either. In my humble opinion both of these blokes have been the main problem in the middle east for too long.

Anyhow, gotta go. See you tomorrow.

Cheers, Skip.

Apparently his Wife is keeping his body on the machines...something to do with the legalities surrounding an estimated 2 BILLION dollars of american funds that were supposed to go to the Palistinian people. The widow and the PLO seem to have differing opinions on who should get the cash...should anyone be able to find it. Some of it is in Swiss accounts only Arafat could access.....

[Dirty Meg]

The idea that Arafat's death will have any effect on terrorism, one way or the other is naive. There are plenty of people willing to train and direct suicide bombers, none of whom would be willing to die themselves. Palestinian suicide bombers are people driven to desperation by their own circumstances (which are as much the fault of Israeli leadership as of their own).
The only way to stop suicide bombings is for Palestine to be free of both Israeli soldiers and raving Islamists. If the Palestinian people felt they had some personal investment in a peaceful coexistance, they wouldn't be as willing to throw their lives away.