Statistics riddle problem continued.

[Sir Kenyth]

I'm just throwing things at you 250 to show you that statistics is not an exact science. The fact that the same physical problem can have different probabilities depending on which person is choosing should show that.

[Sir Kenyth]

I'm not saying you're wrong. Only that you shouldn't be so righteous in your logic.

[250]

if you are not saying I am wrong, then you are saying I am right. Unless you contradict yourself, I am right. If I am right, then I can be self righteous.

the way you "reason" is flawed. one should NOT change conditions. so you failed to prove statistic is not a science

[Sir Kenyth]

quote:

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Originally posted by 250:

if the second person comes along, that'd be a DIFFERENT problem, mind you.

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Just to tickle your brain. Why? Physically there's little difference at that point in time of choice. The first and second person each have 9 doors to choose from and one choice to make. From that perspective, their chances are equal. From the perspective that the first person has done this before. His total chances because of his past are higher than the second. How is it possible to have equal chance and unequal chance at the same time? It's not. It's simply your perspective on the problem. Here's another tickler. What if the first person had done this before and got the prize. Does this mean his chances are reduced in comparison to someone who has never gotten a prize? The chances of winning two times are less than winning once.

[Ronn_Bman]

I can't see why everyone thinks this is so hard! It's sooooo simple.

Spoiler...
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(m + ht) X w = x

You take the beautiful gameshow model, waving her hands in front of the curtains, hostage.

You tell the host that unless he tells you which is the correct curtain you will force the model to call his wife and admit to their affair and tell his wife where the nude pictures are hidden.

Chance of success (x) equals 100% where:

w=wife
m=model
ht=hostage taking

Personally, I think it's too much work for a blender, but I spent the time to work it out in the name of science [img]graemlins/hehe.gif[/img]

[250]

I am telling you, it is A DIFFERENT problem.

you break the process and add another factor in the balance, of course it is gonna go one sided

if you must say that, then the result is:

the first person has 1/3 chance
the second person has 1/2 chance

this solution however, is NOT one of the ORIGINAL problem. it is, just what it is, another problem's solution

[Sir Kenyth]

quote:

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Originally posted by 250:
if you are not saying I am wrong, then you are saying I am right. Unless you contradict yourself, I am right. If I am right, then I can be self righteous.

the way you "reason" is flawed. one should NOT change conditions. so you failed to prove statistic is not a science

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Quit needing to be right. It's not about that. Flex your brain. If you don't think outside the box your thoughts are doomed to be trapped. Are you saying that your answer is %100 right? The universe isn't that rigid. I have seen no formula that represent physical reality %100. There are too many variables.

[250]

it is 100% right as long as there is no false testify

also, you BROKE down the problem in half, and the two halves cannot be resembled back together. it became a new problem, which should be rephrased.

I see no point of arguing with you. if you want a serious answer, argue without changing problems.

also, a quick kill:

to the first person, he ALWAYS get 2/n chance
why? because he got to pick TWICE out of n doors

2/n

simple, huh?

[Sir Kenyth]

quote:

---

Originally posted by 250:
I am telling you, it is A DIFFERENT problem.

you break the process and add another factor in the balance, of course it is gonna go one sided

if you must say that, then the result is:

the first person has 1/3 chance
the second person has 1/2 chance

this solution however, is NOT one of the ORIGINAL problem. it is, just what it is, another problem's solution

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You miss my point completely in your need to be "Final Word!" right. I didn't say stat wasn't a science. Simply that it wasn't an exact science. If the physical problem at the point in time of choice is the same for both people, how can their probabilities differ?

[250]

their possibility differs because

the first person will be able to pick twice

the second person can only pick once

therefore, their possibility differs