Are we going to WAR with Iran now too?

[Ziroc]

This should probably be in the Current Events Forum, but I want you all to see this:

I have some friends that told me back in December that if something doesn't happen in Iran, that Israel backed by US patriot batteries OR we, will attack Iran, and to expect this to occur no later than the end of April.

Then today, I see this News:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2010086,00.html

Also saw a few other stories like this--the guardian isn't the best, but this is accurate I believe.

I really think its going to be really bad if we attack Iran's nuke sites..
Because you know who Iran's best friends are. Russia and China. I can see them cutting ties with the US, or hell, all grouping up to attack the US. Bush doesn't know how to be respectful to other nations.. I don't know if its just how he comes off, or what, but he sure seems to be forcing Iran's hand. (and shaking the hornets nest) He could go about it in a much better way IMO ....

Heh, I even had a dream the other night, and I don't remember all of it--maybe we attacked their nuke plants or not, but I seem to remember Iran launching a huge surprise attack on the US (maybe sinking a carrier ship?) and then coming on TV and saying "As of now, we are at war with the United States".
Crazy.. I just wish everyone would calm down... Tenson is so thick, you can cut it with a knife in the Middle East.

Here are some questions for you all:


1. Do you believe Iran needs to be stopped? If yes, How you YOU get them to stop without resorting to an attack?

2. If the US and or Israel attacks all the nuke sites in a surprise attack, what do you think the backlash will be from not only Iran, but other countries such as Russia and China?

3. If Iran is attacked, how do you think Iran would respond personally?

4. Do you believe we are dangerously close to a World War?

5. Would Iraq fall into a full civil war with Iranian forces coming over?


Just wanted to throw this out there and see how others feel. I personally don't want to see any more wars. BUT the Iran situation is a hard one.
It's like do we trust that they are not going to make nukes? Or, If we believe they are going to make them, like the North Koreans did, they how do we deal with it when Russia and China will not agree to heavy sanctions? And if we attack, we have our forces in Iraq---VERY close to Iran's missiles.

I have seen the signs of the war machine starting up. Moving supplies over, stockpiling oil, minesweeper boats we don't need for Iraq going over.... And another super carrier is going to be in the Gulf soon.

If we do act on Iran, it'll be from the air only. And now they are talking about using nuke tipped bunker busters, because Iran's sites are so deep under ground. (The nukes are extremely low yield--less than 1kt) but still--the headlines would still read: US drops nukes on Iran. (YOU know how the media loves to make something more out of a situation--like this Anna Smith story.

Is there REALLY 3 non-stop days of coverage needed? I don't get it. I am like "okay, she died. Its sad, but leave it at that" we don't need to know what dress she was wearing when she died for gods sake. just don't understand the media these days..

Anyway, sorry for changing subjects.. I just don't get that either.

[ 02-10-2007, 09:25 PM: Message edited by: Ziroc ]

[robertthebard]

1. Yes, they need to be stopped. There is nothing more scary than a guy talking about the war to end all wars, as he's done in the recent past, having nuclear technology. To this point, diplomacy has not only failed, but has been outright scorned by Iran.

2. While Russia, or China may apply political pressure, I don't think they would be willing to get into a military confrontation. However, the possibility does exist. If it happens, it happens. I honestly believe it's time that we, as a nation, asserted ourselves a bit more, instead of bowing to every little country with a TV station.

3. I think they'd be a lot like Osama. Talk crap through a video camera.

4. We might be. I think that if it happens this time, a lot of things that we have come to take for granted, such as the UN, may be gone. Considering their ineffectiveness at most of what they undertake anyway, that would be no big loss.

5. If Iran becomes involved in the Iraq situation, it would no longer be a civil war type situation.

If we do become involved in Iran, then air strikes are the way to go. Keep troops out, and just bomb the known locations. No problem for our forces these days.

[Felix The Assassin]

If you re-read my posts in the CE forum, and read between the lines, you will find my "sole" position on the Iraq war. That position was to have US ground forces within strike range of Iran.

Take it or leave, that was and is still my gut instinct.

Fast forward to April, and you will have 5 (not 4 as proposed by The President) newly approved by congress for rotation "Active Duty" combat brigades on the ground in theater.

Currently on the ground that can easily conduct a battle hand off to the need to fend for themselves Iraqi forces include enough Screen Cavalry, and two heavy divisions to assault any objective within 600KM of Baghdad! There are enough "light fighters" to remain in theater to hold the country stable. That still leaves a heavy brigade in Korea, and two heavy brigades left in the US, along with two light brigades to protect the homeland. The Airborne and Marine RECON have Afghanistan stable.

Our shores have been protected by US Navy secrets for years, and they remain in place.

@Robert; how much silo maintenance have you seen being conducted recently?

[Ziroc]

So do you think that 21,000 call-up of new troops is to defend the Iraq-Iran border if we do strike Iran? Or just backup troops for normal ops in Iraq?

[PurpleXVI]

Wow, I read this before I posted it, and it's turned out to be a bit of a ramble, but I can't be bothered to retype it, so here it is. For anyone with unshakeable faith in the US military machine and who considers an attack on their country's foreign policy to be an attack on themselves, it may be insulting, but there's no insult towards ordinary Americans intended by it, only the fools at the top.

Skim to the very last paragraph if you want the short version.

How would I stop Iran engaging in any hostile actions? Heavy EU military support to prevent any US strike. It'd make them feel less like the entire West is against them, and make them feel more like a Last Resort is called for, not to mention that I doubt the US would go through the EU troops just to hit Iran. Of course, it's not likely to be very good for the US, but frankly, I'd rather have a suck time for the US than a radioactive crater for everyone.

Iran is not insane enough to hand out nukes to terrorists, nor is it insane enough to use nuclear weapons except as a very last resort. What might make them feel that a "very last resort" is necessary would be, say, a US invasion.

Any US attack is going to face a fanatically devoted enemy defending it's homeland and people, on it's own playing field and with gear to rival what the US has deployed at the moment. Not to mention that the US soldiers are probably tired and demoralized after fighting a losing war in Iraq for the last few years, while the Iranian soldiers are eager and refreshed.

If Iran DOES get attacked, I imagine that at first they'll just turn aside the US attacks without any problems. Of course, if the US resorts to the big guns like tac nukes and such, you can believe in, at least at first, more direct support of anti-US terrorist groups, and then, if they can manage it, nuclear weapons, most likely directed against US troops in Iraq or off the coast of Iran. I believe Iran is likely going to construct nuclear weapons, and I don't mind it, if anything, it's going to make sure there's one less country the US is going to try to interfere with.

I don't think we're anywhere near a World War, Europe isn't going to interfere unless we're directly attacked, Russia and China are too busy counting their money, South America isn't close enough to any big trouble spots, Africa doesn't have the energy to get involved in anything big, at most, US policies are going to trigger a massive anti-US terror campaign if something insane like attacking Iran goes through, there may be a bit of fallout for the EU and the rest of the world, but for the most part it'll be between the US and those they've wronged.

If the US troops get ousted from Iraq and Iran moves in, that's the best thing that could happen. It may end up being a heavy-handed theocratic state for at least a few decades, but at least they might manage to clamp down on a lot of the sectarian violence. If there's no Iranian interference, one side is going to gain the upper hand and Iraq will be the site of a happy little genocide.

I hope the world sides with Iran if this thing comes to pass, should the EU, Russia or China do something as foolish as siding with the US, THEN we may have our World War as the Muslim world sees it as an all-out declaration of war(And rightfully so, it would be the EU supporting a war crime against a Muslim country after the war criminal has just finished molesting another Muslim country.).

But nothing like the old World Wars, it'd be entirely irregular. Terrorism and other demoralizing assaults on soft targets rather than serious damage.

Short version: The only way this is going to turn into a World War is if any sizeable chunks of the West supports a US attack on Iran. The best turn-out is if the US gets a bloody nose and the world turns against them(Not militarily, mind you.). It'll suck for the US, sure, but that way we all get to avoid glowing in the dark. The world isn't going to launch a military attack at the US, not even Iran is, but we may be very happy to make sure the US stays within the US and doesn't interfere with the rest of us. Thinking that the US is going to be the target of anything but terrorism is, in my mind, paranoia.

[robertthebard]

Felix, I've seen none, although I am homebound with these migraines. I don't get out unless I have to, and while I live about 2 miles from McConnell AFB, I haven't heard a lot of activity there, yet.

Heavy EU support to stop the US? Do you think they care much about the EU either? We, WE are nothing to them but infidels. Just remember, with what delivery systems Iran may have, EU is the closest target.

Personally, I hope they do try to blockade. Considering we can thread a stove pipe vent with a missile from 2,000 miles away, it should be interesting to see. If the EU tries to interfere, that will be the spark for a World War.

On the other hand, yeah, we could just pull out of Iraq, and any of the EU countries that want to try to blockade us, just remember, when the smoke clears, that it's the way you wanted it. Don't come crying to us. We'll be busy busting all illegals out, and militarizing our own borders, with anyone caught trying to get here, either as a refugee, or just your average everyday illegal shot on sight as a terrorist.

The problem with standing "proud" against a superior force is that pride doesn't accomplish anything. It just gets you shot up.

The logical course is to let Iran have nukes, eh? That's an interesting sentiment. I'm glad they live closer to you, than to me. What makes you so sure they won't supply terrorists with nuclear weapons, since they already supply them with guns, and explosives. Not to mention a place to hide out.

Personally, I live 2 miles from a potential target for a nuclear strike, and that's way too close to allow a lunatic to have possession of a weapon that could wipe my whole city off the map. But hey, let them point that thing in your direction, and see if you can show them all these posts supporting them will get them to decide that you're a decent enough chap, for an infidel.

While he may mention the US, and Israel by name, he doesn't really care about the EU any more than he does about us. After all, you aren't Muslim controlled countries either.

[PurpleXVI]

Oh please, the whole Islam thing is just a political ploy. Ahmadinejad and most of the high-ranking Iranian politicians are no more devout, fanatical Muslims than I'm the Pope of Mars. They talk the talk and galvanize the faithful to vote for them and stand strong against the infidels, then once the faithful are distracted they're like any other politicians. Possibly the president is one of the faithful, but he has little real power when it comes right down to it. The reason he's calling you infidels is because you're threatening his country with a military strike and because he needs his people's support in case you actually go through with it.

And the reason they don't care about the EU is because they think we're buddy-buddy with the US. If we show them that we stand up to injustice rather than just going along with our allies on everything, then they might have some respect for us. Plenty of Muslims are capable of getting along with those of other faiths.

We would, of course, not just show up unannounced. We'd tell the Iranians that we'd be willing to offer support if they wanted it, sell them military gear at a discount price and otherwise make sure they're as ready to repel a US invasion as they could possibly be. It wouldn't be a World War unless the US wanted to blow through EU forces, in which case, wow, the US would truly be left with no allies.

Please, pull out of Iraq, it'll be a bloody hellhole for a decade or two, if Iran doesn't interfere, in which case it'll be a bloody hellhole until they stabilize it with an iron fist, but in the end it'll be stable again. US interference and, I'm sorry to say it, military incompetence are just making the situation there worse.

Not sure who you're saying would be "standing proud" and "getting shot," here. The only ones I can think of in an invasion of Iran would be US soldiers, because the US would not be the superior force in that case. Outnumbered, equalled in training, equalled in arms, beaten in fanaticism and advancing into extremely defensible terrain.

Sure, the US could just drop nukes from afar, but, like I said, that IS exactly the thing that'll get you nukes back, even if you're just using "little" tac-nukes.

Iran is a country full of living people, they will not give nukes to people as utterly unpredictable as fanatical terrorists. Suppose a bunch of terrorists from one sect or another suddenly decided Iran wasn't devout enough after receiving Iranian nukes? Yeah, I wouldn't want to be Iran then either. Nor would I want to be Iran if Iranian nukes blew up a US city, because then we get into MAD territory, then the US has no reason not to drop the Big Bomb on Iran. Hell, if ANY nukes blew up in the US, then you know the US would flip out and fling nukes back at just about every Muslim country even vaguely suspected of having the technology, none of them are going to take the chance.

Iran is not a baseless terrorist group that can not receive retaliation for their actions, the very fact that they're a sovereign state forces them to tread carefully. If they ARE making nukes, it's weapons of last resort and self defense. It's not for offense, it's just to point at in case the US starts waving it's military dick at them.

It's no coincidence that this is all going on while there's a major concentration of US military forces in a neighbouring country.

[johnny]

1. Do you believe Iran needs to be stopped? If yes, How you YOU get them to stop without resorting to an attack?

2. If the US and or Israel attacks all the nuke sites in a surprise attack, what do you think the backlash will be from not only Iran, but other countries such as Russia and China?

3. If Iran is attacked, how do you think Iran would respond personally?

4. Do you believe we are dangerously close to a World War?

5. Would Iraq fall into a full civil war with Iranian forces coming over?

1) Yes, they are threatening worldpeace with their nuclear prgram, and they strive for islamic domination, need more reason ? How can they be stopped ? I guess the answer is, as always, in American hands.

2) Russia and China are paper tigers, they make a lot of noise, but are no match for the US.

3) How will Iran respond ? The usual shouting, shooting in the air, and flagburning response, like we got to know so well. The same question was raised when the US went to war with Iraq the first time. In the days when they invaded Kuwait, they ranked fifth on a worldwide military scale, and everyone was sure the US were going up against a very tough opponent, i don't think i need to step into details how that so called mighty army ended up.

4) Yes, but that's pretty much always the case.

5) Iraq is already in a civil war, how else would you describe what's going on right now ?

[johnny]

Iran is not a baseless terrorist group that can not receive retaliation for their actions, the very fact that they're a sovereign state forces them to tread carefully. If they ARE making nukes, it's weapons of last resort and self defense. It's not for offense, it's just to point at in case the US starts waving it's military dick at them.

I strongly advise you to do some research on what Ahmadinejad shouted out in public, that is if you can find the time to pull your head out of your ass for a minute. First of all, there's the whole holocaust denial thing, which is clearly meant to start a fire, and then there's the pledge to wipe Israel from the face of the earth. And you're going to pretend Iran is not thinking offensively ? Their agressive stance is the US's fault ?

[PurpleXVI]

The pledge to wipe Israel from the face of the Earth has been discovered to be a translation error, before you start throwing out insults, I suggest that YOU do your research. I'd appreciate it if you kept a civil tone.

EDIT and a response to

2) Russia and China are paper tigers, they make a lot of noise, but are no match for the US.

China does have the power to destroy the economy of the US with a few transactions, I'd say that counts as being a match.

[ 02-11-2007, 12:54 AM: Message edited by: PurpleXVI ]