09-08-2005, 04:37 PM | #91 |
Iron Throne Cult
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Geez! These ones were hard! Ah well, I did win yesterday, woo! LOL Jorath s.m.r.t...
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09-08-2005, 04:54 PM | #92 |
Drow Priestess
Join Date: March 13, 2001
Location: a hidden sanctorum high above the metroplex
Age: 54
Posts: 4,037
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The probabilities of getting n questions correct by guessing (p(correct) = 0.25):
n.....p (in %)...cumulative p (n or fewer questions correct by guessing) 0.....5.63.......5.63 1.....18.77......24.40 2.....28.16......52.56 3.....25.03......77.59 4.....14.60......92.19 5.....5.84.......98.03 6.....1.62.......99.65 7.....0.31.......99.96 8.....0.0369.....99.9969 9.....0.003......99.9999 10....0.0001.....100 Thus, if you guess 5 or more correctly you're doing really, really well. [img]graemlins/petard.gif[/img] [ 09-08-2005, 04:56 PM: Message edited by: Azred ]
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Everything may be explained by a conspiracy theory. All conspiracy theories are true. No matter how thinly you slice it, it's still bologna. |
09-09-2005, 01:29 AM | #93 |
John Locke
Join Date: February 7, 2002
Location: Edmonton, Canada
Age: 35
Posts: 8,985
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Heck, with my luck, I'd be good to get 1 right. [img]tongue.gif[/img]
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09-09-2005, 08:32 AM | #94 |
20th Level Warrior
Join Date: December 28, 2003
Location: Kentucky
Age: 38
Posts: 2,820
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I got 1 right!
Man, I think my scores here and at the Oasis game are inversely proportional.
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09-09-2005, 10:19 AM | #95 | |
Ma'at - Goddess of Truth & Justice
Join Date: October 31, 2002
Location: Western Australia
Age: 43
Posts: 3,293
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Quote:
The example given to me back then was the probability of having 12 children and all of them being female (which is, i think, a current guiness record). I tried to explain this near impossible probabilty to a friend but choked badly. He insisted that it was still 50%. Care to explain, in dummy terms mind, how to work it out? [img]smile.gif[/img]
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09-09-2005, 05:34 PM | #96 |
Iron Throne Cult
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Isn't it that the chance of having 12 babies all being female is very small, but if you have 11 girls then the chance that your next one will be female is still 50% because probability has no memory? Like, if you toss a coin whether heads or tails comes up has no bearing on whether you tossed heads the last time you tossed it. Or something? [img]graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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09-09-2005, 07:06 PM | #97 |
Drow Priestess
Join Date: March 13, 2001
Location: a hidden sanctorum high above the metroplex
Age: 54
Posts: 4,037
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Combinations. Suppose you have k objects and you want to arrange n of them, the formula is kCn = k!/(n!*(k-n)!) Example: 10C5 = 10!/(5!*5!) = 252.
The probability of answering correctly with a guess is .25; hence, the probability of guessing incorrectly is .75. If you guess 3 correctly that means 7 incorrectly, or (.25^3) * (.75^7). Since each question is independent, you wind up multiplying the probabilities together. Getting three questions correct means arranging 3 out of 10. From the above forumla, 10C3 = 10!/(3! * 7!) = 120 ways of answering 3 correctly. Putting the forumulas together gives... ...the likelihood of answering n questions correctly = 10Cn * (.25^n) * (.75^(10-n)). For 3 questions 120 * .25^3 * .75^7 = .250282288. For the cumulative probabilities, obviously add. Simple, yes? [img]graemlins/petard.gif[/img] Now, if only I could answer some of those ridiculous questions. [img]graemlins/laugh3.gif[/img]
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Everything may be explained by a conspiracy theory. All conspiracy theories are true. No matter how thinly you slice it, it's still bologna. |
09-09-2005, 07:17 PM | #98 |
Drow Priestess
Join Date: March 13, 2001
Location: a hidden sanctorum high above the metroplex
Age: 54
Posts: 4,037
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No, I got 2 correct, which is about usual for me when it comes to minute details of Australian town locations, the history of Finland, and more Australian sports.
It says "all world", but a majority of the questions are Australian. Oh, well. [img]graemlins/petard.gif[/img] I just decided to change my strategy here. Since I don't know the answers anyway, I'll just pick random choices and submit my answers within 20 seconds. What I miss in accuracy I'll get back in speed. [img]tongue.gif[/img] [ 09-09-2005, 07:19 PM: Message edited by: Azred ]
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Everything may be explained by a conspiracy theory. All conspiracy theories are true. No matter how thinly you slice it, it's still bologna. |
09-09-2005, 07:48 PM | #99 |
John Locke
Join Date: February 7, 2002
Location: Edmonton, Canada
Age: 35
Posts: 8,985
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I get loads of british and european questions, not so much australian anymore.
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09-11-2005, 04:30 AM | #100 |
Iron Throne Cult
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Could we maybe change the topic for a bit? Maybe we could have a week with films/literature/sports/etc - a different one each day or couple of days. I'm personally getting a bit sick of world knowledge, especially since I have to guess most of them (which I think is true of most of us!). Yesterday I got at least 4 about Denmark!
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