03-19-2001, 02:20 PM | #1 |
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-------------------- Down and down it goes, where Mir will land, nobody knows -------------------- Michael Cabbage Sentinel Space Editor March 18, 2001 CAPE CANAVERAL -- The Mir space station won't hit downtown Orlando this week. Well, Russian authorities are pretty sure it won't, anyway. Instead, the storied outpost is supposed to be headed for a suicide plunge from orbit to a watery grave early Thursday. About 80 percent of the 135-ton station is expected to burn up in Earth's atmosphere, while 1,500 or so surviving chunks -- some as large as a compact car -- rain down on a remote part of the South Pacific. But this is Mir. The near-legendary tendency of the station's systems to fail at critical times has emergency managers on the edge of their seats. Plus, nothing so large has been brought down before. An unlikely mistake could put populated areas in harm's way. "This is the Super Bowl of re-entries," said Bill Ailor, director of The Aerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies near Los Angeles. "It's likely to have a big footprint [impact area] and lots of it will survive." For the record, the vast majority of experts are confident all will go smoothly. The Russians have successfully scuttled more than 80 smaller spacecraft in the Pacific during the past 30 years. But a few past re-entry problems have scattered debris far and wide. More than 80 governments around the globe are taking the threat seriously. How seriously? The United States and countries in Europe have agreed to help Moscow track Mir. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is on standby. Australia has developed a Mir warning system and national contingency plan. Japan's defense minister canceled a U.S. trip to monitor the event. And, perhaps most telling, the Russians have taken out $200 million in liability insurance. "If the station goes out of control, her wreckage could fall on practically any area of the planet," admitted Yuri Koptev, general director of the Russian Aviation and Space Agency. However, Koptev insists there is a 97 percent probability that won't happen. And even if it does, he added, the chance of Mir's wreckage hitting a city is about 1 in 5,000. A Russian symbol Economics, not physics, ultimately sealed Mir's doom. The outpost has survived the harsh space environment since 1986. But an even harsher political and fiscal environment in Moscow finally forced Russia's cash-starved space program to pull the plug. A symbol of Russian technological might and national pride, Mir's demise has been met with fierce opposition at home and glee in Washington. U.S. officials pressured Moscow for years to abandon the aging outpost and focus Russia's scarce resources on the 16-nation international space station project headed by NASA. The Russians reluctantly agreed last fall when plans to keep Mir afloat with commercial projects -- including tourist visits, a television show where contestants would compete for a stay in orbit and plans to film a risque sci-fi movie there -- didn't work out. "The [Mir] space station is a place that the world recognized as ours," cosmonaut Alexander Lazutkin said. "Now as we scuttle Mir, we won't have a piece of space that is ours." Russians argue with some justification that Mir was the first true international space station. Despite its origin as a Soviet military project, the outpost hosted 104 visitors from 12 countries. Seven Americans made long-duration stays from 1995 to 1998, when NASA flew nine shuttle docking missions there. However, Mir also earned a reputation as a broken-down rattletrap during a harrowing six-month stretch in 1997. A faulty oxygen canister started an onboard fire, almost forcing the crew to abandon ship. The station's central computer and life-support systems failed repeatedly. And a supply ship crashed into Mir during a botched docking, crushing a solar panel and causing an air leak in one of the station's six modules. Late-night comedians got plenty of laughs at Mir's expense. But the station proved as tough and resilient as the culture that built it. Russian resourcefulness kept Mir flying three times longer than its original design life of three to five years. Some argue the breakdowns have paid huge dividends as assembly of the new international station has ramped up. "The irony is that Mir's condition gave us the opportunity to learn how to maintain and service a space station in orbit," said Roald Sagdeev, director of the East West Space Science Center at the University of Maryland. The downside is that cutting-edge research was a rarity on Mir. Cosmonauts rewrote the book on long stays in space there, proving humans could remain in orbit for extended periods with no lasting ill effects. Cosmonaut Valery Polyakov spent 438 consecutive days on Mir. Sergei Avdeyev amassed a total of 747 days during three separate visits. Both are world records. But because Mir lacked sophisticated science equipment, research was mostly limited to general observations in orbit and tests before and after flight. "They were so busy trying to save the station it took all of the effort," Sagdeev said. "There was a little science in the early years. There was a little later when the Americans visited. But most of the work was engineering and repairs." The last hurrah Mir's kamikaze homecoming is set for about 1:30 a.m. Thursday. A number of factors, however, including solar activity that increases drag in the atmosphere, could shift the time as much as a day earlier or later. The outpost, vacant since last June, has steadily sunk from its former perch 250 miles above Earth. When Mir reaches an altitude of 137 miles, de-orbit operations will begin in earnest. A Progress supply ship that docked with Mir on Jan. 26 will provide the needed push. Flight controllers plan to fire the Progress ship's engines twice late Wednesday to lower Mir's orbit before a third and final 11-minute engine burn over Russia brings the station down. NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston will be in constant contact with the Russian Mission Control Center outside Moscow to relay the latest data from the U.S. military's worldwide tracking network. "The Russians have their own set of sensors but they're all located within the borders of the former Soviet Union," said Nicholas Johnson, program manager for orbital debris studies at Johnson Space Center. "There are many hours of the day when they don't have an opportunity to track Mir." If all goes well, the final engine firing will force Mir down over a remote strip of the South Pacific 3,700 miles long by 300 miles wide, about midway between Australia and South America. Mir's antennas and solar wings will be vaporized 70 miles high. Fuel tanks will explode and most of the outpost's six camper-sized modules will break apart and burn up by the 50-mile mark. It's expected to take 30 to 45 minutes for an estimated 27 tons of remaining wreckage to hit the ocean. Experts say Russian flight controllers face two big uncertainties going into the maneuver. "Are the computers and communications going to be up when you need them?" re-entry specialist Ailor asked. "Given Mir's history, they must really be chewing their nails over that one. And there's also the question of: 'As this dips lower into the atmosphere, will it stay stable?' " The Progress ship has a less complex computer that might be able to take over the operation if Mir's fails. But serious problems could leave wreckage almost anywhere. Russian oddsmakers put the chance of a U.S. strike at less than 2 percent. NASA's Johnson and other authorities agree there is little to worry about. No one has ever been injured by manmade debris from space. However, there have been close calls. Part of NASA's only space station, Skylab, came down in the Australian outback in 1979, reportedly killing a cow. A Soviet military satellite showered the Canadian Arctic with debris in 1978. And Mir's predecessor, Salyut 7, crashed in South America's Andes Mountains in 1991. Unlike Mir, none of those re-entries was controlled. Wherever the station comes down, its destruction will mark the end of an era. While Mir -- which means both world and peace in Russian -- remains the butt of jokes, history likely will accord it a legacy more worthy of its name. "The epitaph is that Mir was an important element in ending the Cold War," said John Pike, director of the GlobalSecurity.com policy research group. "It was the vehicle on which the U.S. and Russians learned to start living and working together in space." Colin McMahon, the Chicago Tribune's Moscow bureau chief, contributed to this story. Michael Cabbage can be reached at mcabbage@orlandosentinel.com or 321-639-0522. Copyright (c) 2001, Orlando Sentinel ------------------ When given a choice, take both. |
03-19-2001, 02:35 PM | #2 |
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Fare thee well Mir
You will go to heaven too Know that ISA will never replace you in our hearts ------------------ The Legend Master Necromancer Prince Rikard T'Aranaxz of Natri'x Clanmaster and Mental Father of the OHF Ramanish of Neathan'Calith High Priest and son of the Eternal Phoenix Lord and General of the Army of the West AND!!! Laughing Hyena!!! |
03-19-2001, 02:54 PM | #3 |
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Sniffle...sniffle.... Do-svidaniya, Mir! Do-svidaniya, Historical artifact. Try not to smash into any little boats or fish or anything, hmmm?!
Tak i eto vsyo, milenki moi! Oblako-sil'f ------------------ Storm-Queen Purple Rose of the Black Knight [This message has been edited by Cloudbringer (edited 03-19-2001).] |
03-19-2001, 02:58 PM | #4 |
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Mir, you have served us well. It is time for us to take another step forward, good bye old friend.
------------------ Feel My Power Arcane Adept of the OHF, "So let it be written, So let it be done" |
03-19-2001, 03:04 PM | #5 | |
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Quote:
Gray Mage?! HELLO! I keep missing you, my friend! I'm at the desk now...sigh..hey, do you know if it's true what they say- that a messy desk is a sign of genius? If so, I'm up there with Einstein! LOL Anyone seen my pen, I had it here a few minutes ago..and the Purchase Reqs...I KNOW I had two of those puppies here just a half hour earlier...sigh... Raindancer of The Laughing Hyenas Clan Memny's StormQueen of Ironworks Cloudbringer of a Thousand Names StormCloud of the Black Knight -er, can I check a few of my other personae through with my luggage...they are awfully heavy to cart on board!- ------------------ Storm-Queen Purple Rose of the Black Knight |
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03-19-2001, 05:23 PM | #6 |
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Thanks JJ for the post, it made great reading. I am truly sorry about it's demise, as the quest for space seems to be diminishing, as cutbacks set our galactic expansion back every year. A mission to Mars seems more unlikely every day, as budgets are pruned, despite the hype. I fear for mankind in the long term, as this planet has already been ruined by us and unless we find a way of conolizing other planets, the future looks bleak.
------------------ Never accept an invitation from Wolfgir to a BBQ! |
03-19-2001, 07:16 PM | #7 |
Zartan
Join Date: March 1, 2001
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JJ, when I read the title, I thought YOU were leaving! Don't frighten us like that!
Good post, it is the end of an era. I will be watching for falling debris. ------------------ Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so. Epona of The Laughing Hyenas. |
03-19-2001, 09:47 PM | #8 |
Emerald Dragon
Join Date: March 4, 2001
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And so ends a piece of history, fankly I more waooried about it hiting a forested area.
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03-19-2001, 09:50 PM | #9 |
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I should be worried, it might hit Australia!
------------------ Memnoch - Custodian of the Order of the Holy Flame |
03-19-2001, 09:56 PM | #10 |
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Memnoch we are most surley in the firing line. Stay up there Mir! find freedom in the vast outer reaches not on our fair blue planet and especially not in this 'sunburnt country'. (if you hit new zealand i'm sure we could get by though)
------------------ Iron like a Lion in Zion. Meeouw... |
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