SCUDs found on their way to Yemen

[Attalus]

Originally posted by MagiK: Anyway, hope this cleared up some stuff....and didn't stirr too many pots

You? Stir a pot? I am shocked, shocked, I say. I totally agree that we MUST be working on and doing research on, anti-ballistic missles.What is not possible today may be possible tomorrow.

[Sir Krustin]

Originally posted by MagiK: Umm Rokken, The Reagan Era Starwars has nothing to do with the current plans to deploy ABM's. The Bush ABM system is being developed under some older research and current $$'s being spent on new black projects. Someone Mentioned the SPY-1 Radar system [img]smile.gif[/img] hehe Yep SPY-1's and their upgrades would be just dandy for shooting down incomming warheads, (see Clancy's Red Rabbit Novel, he gets the tech exactly right) The ABM system is not inteneded to be a "false safety blanket to quiet the public" it will be a working system that will not be 100% effective untill further work is done, shit no system ever fielded for anything has ever been 100% effective. Just because it isn't 100% are you saying we should just leave that door wide open? The ABM's will be built, they will be a bargaining chip on any future issues with China and or N. Korea.

Do the math, MagiK. BM's at terminal velocity travel on the order of 10km/sec. SM-2's travel at about 2000km/hr (or roughly 550m/sec). The BM will reenter at about 100km altitude, leaving the Aegis at most 15 seconds to react. That's detection, identifying, tracking, programming the weapon, and launching - and let's not forget the limits on the Aegis system, only four missiles may be terminally guided at any given time. (That's how many illuminators are on deck) What happens when you have 10 warheads per missile entering the target area? (the number of MIRVs per SS-20). Could get ugly quickly.

It just isn't possible with todays technology; the only reason SDI had even a hope of succeeding was the orbital detonation-lasers and hunter/killer satellites - more time to react, and they hit the BM's when they are travelling the slowest, during the orbital phase. Once a few billion was spent trying to make it work, and coming up with nothing they basically had no hope of successfully building an ABM system.

I just realized that I've heard about the tests they mention in the article, about a year ago. Interestingly enough, the tests were rigged - they kept failing, but the heads of the project wanted success so they just kept skewing the parameters of the test in favour of the system until they got a success. (eg, the firer knew when the missile was coming, where it was coming from, and they didn't have to id and arm the system first)

In the real world, the Aegis system is never left on automatic, since the disaster with the Vincennes. This would be required to have any hope at all to stop any incoming ballistic weapons.

Edit> for math...

[ 12-18-2002, 07:47 PM: Message edited by: Sir Krustin ]

[Gregster]

OKay gang...what say we strip this discussion of all the bulk filler, nifty statistics, pronouncements about race and religion, and look at the central fact of the case:

Yemen, an unstable Mid East country with a frothing fundamentalist loony fringe of the Islamic bent (which has already attacked the USS Cole and killed 19 US sailors in a suicide bombing while said vessel was docked...in Yemen) has received a shipment of medium-range missiles capable of being loaded with all sorts of explosives, bugs, and gas which they purchased form North Korea, a country which (under the non-proliferation agreement) is NOT-- I say again, NOT-- supposed to be selling or otherwise transporting missile technology of ANY kind. The North Koreans had no business sending them a Fed Ex tube full of schematics for a SCUD, forget selling them actual SCUDs.

Once again-- just like with Saddam and Al Queda-- international law and treaty was broken. Once again-- just like with Saddam and Al Queda-- the same people I see on this board and others pissing and moaning about the US breaking the law and/or arming whacko regimes is doing its usual 180-degree spin and claiming the both parties were within their rights and we should dutifully butt out of their business.

You can pile as much window-dressing around this issue as you like-- the sale was not supposed to happen, nor should it have. It's illegal, reckless, and dangerous. Period. End of story. It doesn't make the slightest bit of difference WHAT you think of North Koreans or Arabs.

Now, as far as addressing the point of the effectiveness of SCUDs...well, they pretty much do suck for accuracy and reliability. However, that is also their (sort of) benefit: you launch one of those puppies in the air and nobody REALLY knows where the hell it's gonna fall. I could break up on re-entry and drop a warhead in place and flaming wreckage in another. Thus, it fit right in with the combat doctrine of the Iran/Iraq War which featured human-wave attacks, suicide bombings, random gassing, and point-blank armor battles.

Also, I notice someone mentioned they had a Shi'ite friend who was a nice person in spite of being part of the radical fringe of Islam. Actually, being the two main branches of Islam-- Sunni and Shi'a-- the Shi'ites are more moderate and progressive. Saudi Arabia-- home of Osama bin Laden, much of the Al Queda leadership, and many of the radical groups that operate in Saudi Arabia (as well as the majority of the 9/11 barnstormers) are of the ultra-strict Sunni Wa'habi bent.

Originally posted by Sir Krustin: quote: Originally posted by MagiK: Umm Rokken, The Reagan Era Starwars has nothing to do with the current plans to deploy ABM's. The Bush ABM system is being developed under some older research and current $$'s being spent on new black projects. Someone Mentioned the SPY-1 Radar system [img]smile.gif[/img] hehe Yep SPY-1's and their upgrades would be just dandy for shooting down incomming warheads, (see Clancy's Red Rabbit Novel, he gets the tech exactly right) The ABM system is not inteneded to be a "false safety blanket to quiet the public" it will be a working system that will not be 100% effective untill further work is done, shit no system ever fielded for anything has ever been 100% effective. Just because it isn't 100% are you saying we should just leave that door wide open? The ABM's will be built, they will be a bargaining chip on any future issues with China and or N. Korea.

Do the math, MagiK. BM's at terminal velocity travel on the order of 10km/sec. SM-2's travel at about 2000km/hr (or roughly 550m/sec). The BM will reenter at about 100km altitude, leaving the Aegis at most 15 seconds to react. That's detection, identifying, tracking, programming the weapon, and launching - and let's not forget the limits on the Aegis system, only four missiles may be terminally guided at any given time. (That's how many illuminators are on deck) What happens when you have 10 warheads per missile entering the target area? (the number of MIRVs per SS-20). Could get ugly quickly.

It just isn't possible with todays technology; the only reason SDI had even a hope of succeeding was the orbital detonation-lasers and hunter/killer satellites - more time to react, and they hit the BM's when they are travelling the slowest, during the orbital phase. Once a few billion was spent trying to make it work, and coming up with nothing they basically had no hope of successfully building an ABM system.

I just realized that I've heard about the tests they mention in the article, about a year ago. Interestingly enough, the tests were rigged - they kept failing, but the heads of the project wanted success so they just kept skewing the parameters of the test in favour of the system until they got a success. (eg, the firer knew when the missile was coming, where it was coming from, and they didn't have to id and arm the system first)

In the real world, the Aegis system is never left on automatic, since the disaster with the Vincennes. This would be required to have any hope at all to stop any incoming ballistic weapons.

Edit> for math...[/QUOTE]HihO Sir Krusty You are limiting your assessment of the SPY-1 and SM2 system by not including the fact that the ship launching the missiles is not limited to its own sensors [img]smile.gif[/img] You have more than 15 seconds if you integrate your entire sensor system (a project I worked on when I was with SAIC) trust me, there is way more than 15 seconds to react and yeah only 4 missiles may be temrinally guided at a time, however since you can stagger your launches, 4 at a time is plenty. Im not saying that the SPY-1/SM2 are the ultimate ABM but it can be used effectively expecially with the newer technologies being fielded. I think we should continue to improve all aspects of our ABM and Anti-missile systems, directed energy weapons will probably be the method of the future, but we arent there yet...at least not quite.

I hope that I have the chance to make an in depth post, unfortunately messed up ribs and heavby doses of codine are forcing me to bed now...night night [img]smile.gif[/img]

[Chewbacca]

Originally posted by Sir Krustin: All muslims do want world rule - it's a central tenet of their religion.

I wish a muslim was around to speak for themselves.

This is kind of like saying all Christians want doomsday so all the sinners will be destroyed and only the righteous will live in heaven. Its a central tenet of their religion.

I wish Yemen the best and hope they don't use their weapons offensively.

[Donut]

Originally posted by Gregster: You can pile as much window-dressing around this issue as you like-- the sale was not supposed to happen, nor should it have. It's illegal, reckless, and dangerous. Period. End of story. It doesn't make the slightest bit of difference WHAT you think of North Koreans or Arabs.

"There is no provision under international law prohibiting Yemen from accepting delivery of missiles from North Korea. While there is authority to stop and search, in this instance there's no clear authority to seize the shipment of Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen and, therefore, the merchant vessel is being released."

Yemen is unstable but the US wants to maintain good relations with them to wage war against Iraq. That is one of the reasons why the Spanish were sent to intercept the ship.

Originally posted by Chewbacca: quote: Originally posted by Sir Krustin: All muslims do want world rule - it's a central tenet of their religion.

I wish a muslim was around to speak for themselves.

This is kind of like saying all Christians want doomsday so all the sinners will be destroyed and only the righteous will live in heaven. Its a central tenet of their religion.

I wish Yemen the best and hope they don't use their weapons offensively. [/QUOTE]As usual when it comes to things Christian, Chewy you got it wrong [img]smile.gif[/img] but thats ok [img]smile.gif[/img] Christians don't lust for doomsday. Christians if they believe the bible as literal believe that there will be war and famine and an "End of times" but they don't lust for it, they aren't exhorted to bring it on...Unlike Muslims, who if they are true to the laws and rules of Islam must work toward the destruction of all infidels.

Try actually reading some of the new testement guy [img]smile.gif[/img] you might be surprised to find it isn't as hate filled as you might think.

[ 12-19-2002, 02:39 PM: Message edited by: MagiK ]

[Gregster]

Originally posted by Donut: "There is no provision under international law prohibiting Yemen from accepting delivery of missiles from North Korea. While there is authority to stop and search, in this instance there's no clear authority to seize the shipment of Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen and, therefore, the merchant vessel is being released."

Not international law, perhaps...just the various treaties the North Koreans have entered into where they promised to dismatle their WMD and missile programs and not export missile technology of any type in exchange for political recognition and economic aid (the latter being something they desparately need).

North Korea remains one of the (if not THE) world's top missile exporters...so much for treaties.

[Sir Krustin]

Originally posted by MagiK: quote: Originally posted by Sir Krustin: Do the math, MagiK. BM's at terminal velocity travel on the order of 10km/sec. SM-2's travel at about 2000km/hr (or roughly 550m/sec). The BM will reenter at about 100km altitude, leaving the Aegis at most 15 seconds to react.

HihO Sir Krusty You are limiting your assessment of the SPY-1 and SM2 system by not including the fact that the ship launching the missiles is not limited to its own sensors [img]smile.gif[/img] You have more than 15 seconds if you integrate your entire sensor system (a project I worked on when I was with SAIC) trust me, there is way more than 15 seconds to react[/QUOTE]I was aware of that, but datalink only goes so far, and maximum early warning is still somewhere less than 3 minutes. This still doesn't change the physics either. I still invite you to do the math. Here's a general idea:

The BM is arriving at 10,000km/sec (that's 10^7 m/sec), the interceptor is travelling 550m/sec - that's a 20,000:1 advantage on the part of the BM. That is, while the BM is traversing 100km of atmosphere, the SM-2 has traversed exactly 5 meters from the launcher. Think about the ramifications of this. At the very least, the defensive battery has to be right on top of the BMs target to be of use, and pK will be down around 10% or so. (Just look at the statistics for the Patriot shooting down the much slower and more vulnerable SCUD)

and yeah only 4 missiles may be temrinally guided at a time, however since you can stagger your launches, 4 at a time is plenty. Im not saying that the SPY-1/SM2 are the ultimate ABM but it can be used effectively expecially with the newer technologies being fielded. I think we should continue to improve all aspects of our ABM and Anti-missile systems, directed energy weapons will probably be the method of the future, but we arent there yet...at least not quite.

Actually, it's better than that. The SM-2's fly where directed until an illuminator becomes available at which point the SM-2 goes into terminal guidance mode....but the timing is critical, and you still have to deal with the physics of ballistic missiles.

When they were using the old mk11's they used to go to rapid fire, even when all 4 directors were in use. Now with the box-launcher it's even sweeter. Pretty much empty the magazine in 30 seconds sending missiles into "the basket" and handing them off to directors as targets get elminated.

[Chewbacca]

Originally posted by MagiK: quote: Originally posted by Chewbacca: quote: Originally posted by Sir Krustin: All muslims do want world rule - it's a central tenet of their religion.

I wish a muslim was around to speak for themselves.

This is kind of like saying all Christians want doomsday so all the sinners will be destroyed and only the righteous will live in heaven. Its a central tenet of their religion.

I wish Yemen the best and hope they don't use their weapons offensively. [/QUOTE]As usual when it comes to things Christian, Chewy you got it wrong [img]smile.gif[/img] but thats ok [img]smile.gif[/img] Christians don't lust for doomsday. Christians if they believe the bible as literal believe that there will be war and famine and an "End of times" but they don't lust for it, they aren't exhorted to bring it on...Unlike Muslims, who if they are true to the laws and rules of Islam must work toward the destruction of all infidels.

Try actually reading some of the new testement guy [img]smile.gif[/img] you might be surprised to find it isn't as hate filled as you might think. [/QUOTE]Actually I was illustrating a point about making incorrect generlizations. [img]smile.gif[/img]
I didn't know I had made previous assumptions about things christian. Based on your tone, You would be suprised by how little you know of what I know.

You are making an assumption about Muslims and what the rules and laws of Allah are.

http://islampeace.org/

Here is a place to start about Islam. I found this and thousand of other sites using Google.

Be warned: Islam is as multi-faceted as every other religion.