Cloudy's Cafe, a conversation zone, January 23, 2006

[Calaethis Dragonsbane]

Originally posted by Ilander: Somewhat ironic of a thing to say, considering that one of the big threads in General Discussion right now is "Ironworks Changes" [img]smile.gif[/img]

Yeah, funny that ain't it? [img]graemlins/littleangel.gif[/img]

[True_Moose]

Originally posted by Sir Goulum: quote: Originally posted by True_Moose: Flames beat the Oilers 3-1. Good day [img]smile.gif[/img]

The Oilers are floudering right now... going through the annual January slump. That game would have been watchable if Sportsnet weren't such rabid Flames fans... for Sportsnet West, I think they should be a little more unbiased. [/QUOTE]Seriously?? When any team not Edmonton scores, the play-by-play guy, Quinn, sounds like someone just drowned his cat. I tend to watch it on TV but listen to the radio anyway...Peter Maher, our play-by-play guy, is great, and he's actually pretty unbiased - he had an interview a few weeks back where he said it's tough sometimes, but he tries to sound as excited about the opppositions goals as the Flames. Besides, you guys need a goalie, and Iginla is just on fire.

I wouldn't be incredibly bummed about the election - the Bloc got hit hard, they lost seats, and the Conservatives gained at their expense. Duceppe does not look like a happy camper. In any case, in order to stay in power for more than 5 minutes, the Conservatives are going to have to swing to the middle anyway. The one thing that gets me is Myron Thompson, how do people keep electing him, he makes me so angry

[Sir Goulum]

I dunno, maybe it's just certain play by play guys, but some of them, Millen I think is one, are just brutal. Usually, I just turn on 630 CHED and listen to Rod Phillips, much like you do. Quite unbiased, and he really gets into the action.

[True_Moose]

Millen is a goof. Interestingly, he holds the NHL record for most goals allowed in a single season. Between him and Glen Healy, they're unbearable. During the playoffs in 03-04...you should've heard Healy go on and on about how first the Canucks, then the Red Wings were going to destroy the Flames.

[Sir Goulum]

Thank god a flames fan agrees with me on that one. You have to admit though that the Flames were up against some good opposition last year and were riding an excellent goaltender, and were the underdogs in almost every series they played in.

[Mack_Attack]

True moose nice to see you back. Dam I missed the game last night. The wife decided that she wanted to go to the gym. So I had to get the kids to bed. No big deal just missed the game.

Poor Hudson is sick right now to. He is having a hard time keeping things down. But he still is in some what good spirts.

But today is his Birthday. So happy Brthday hudson. Not that he can read. [img]graemlins/hehe.gif[/img]

[Luvian]

Originally posted by Calaethis Dragonsbane: quote: Originally posted by Luvian: I've had a pretty average day, if not boring. I started a novel, read maybe a quarter of it, then realised it was utterly boring. The cast of character was flat and uninteresting, even their names sucked, and the plot was bad.

What was it called?

Hey all, just dropping by. *waves* I see that this place never changes. [/QUOTE]It's "Voyage from Yesteryear" by James P. Hogan. Here's why I didn't like it.

First of all, this is the description that got me interested:

INVASION FROM EARTH

Earth seemed doomed to a fiery death so they colonized the Alpha Centaury system with children.

But not everyone perished from Old Earth's war. Decades later a generation ship bearing a cargo of colonist - and an army to protect them - headed for the planet Chiron to reassert Earth's Lawfull control over the fledgling colony.

Too bad the colonist didn't see things the same way.

Now, from reading this, you'd get the impression the novel would be about the colony living in peace, until that ship show up, and then they have to fight for independance against the agressive remains of an nuked society, or something like that. You'd be wrong.

The book start with a prologue populated with throwaway characters and tell us some facts. America and Russia are in a Nuclear was over ressource, while China and Japan allied themselves. Things look grim, and some scientist decide to send a Space Probe containing enough genetic material for it to recreate human life on the first habitable planet it find. (Keep in mind this is happening in the 2000s) This probe is made by a multinational project from the 3 superpower, America, Russia, and the Japan/China alliance.

Chapter one start. From the point of view of a whole quad of marines, they are uninteresting and have no personality. The only one memorable is Sirroco the mustached captain, he's flat too, but the name/mustache combination make him sound like such a loser it's hard to forget him. We learn that this is 40 years after the prologue. America was nuked to the dark age, people were starving and had to survive from food and paper clothing sent from china, but in that 40 years they rebuilt everything and are now again the number one World Power, with one exception, they are now fascist and dictatorial, while apparently China is liberal.

We also learn that 20 years before that, the probe sent a message, it found an habitable system called Alpha Centaury (*gasp* a system! They discovered it in 2020...). Now that probe was a joint project, but suddently the 3 superpower decide if one of the other got to the colony first they'd just kill the part of the population that isn't theirs, so they all need to get there fast. (Remember how the text behind the book said Earth wanted the colony back under it's lawfull control? It was a lie, it's just each faction bringing their war to space. Remember when they mentioned people perished in a world war and made it sound like earth was in ruin? It was a lie too, it's pretty much the same as before.)

Now we learn that America managed to build a ship and send in to space 2 years before the other superpowers (never mind the fact that america is just coming out of total nuclear destruction...). They sent a ship containing 30k people, including an army with what we're told is enough nukes to destroy earth if they wanted. We also learn they are at the end of a 20 year journey to get to the colony, they'll land in 3 months. We're also introduced to some other unmemorable characters and shown how rigid their society now is.

Then they land. Now you might be expecting the story to switch to the colony, after all the book did say "INVASION FROM EARTH" and not "INVADING CHIRON". But no, you'd be wrong. We never see anything of the colony except from the eyes of the americans.

Now the americans are puzzled. The colony is an "utopia". There are no law, there are no leaders, there is no money. People do their job for free, and give their 100% at all time, because it's the good thing to do. No one give anyone order, they just watch what is needed and do their part. They also don't becomes couples, it's prefectly normal to sleep with anyone willing at any time. (The colony is 40 years old. At first they had enough material to create 10k child. They were supposed to have a reproduction phase when they reached 20, and then another when those new child would reach 20 too. That's 2 generation. But from those 10k, 40 years later, there more than 100k people. We also learn that they are at their 4th generation. This mean they probably start having sex when they are 10 years old! or they wouldn't have time to have 4 generations in 40 years. To get to 100k people from 10k in 40 years, every female would also need to have a lot of children...)

Now the fascist americans don't really like what they see, and they want to rule the colony, but there is no leader to push around, and the people of the colony don't mind taking orders. It turn out some Americans like the utopia and get converted, except a core of facist americans. The fascist try a coup, but are beaten, they go back to earth. End of story.

Now, I think their utopia is impossible, it goes against human nature. I'm also disapointed that there were no real main characters, just unmemorable characters from the crew of the ship. I was also lied to. I was expecting the story of a fledgling colony trying to keep it's independance, not some messed up sociology thesis.

[ 01-24-2006, 10:24 AM: Message edited by: Luvian ]

[Cloudbringer]

Happy Birthday to your little guy, Mack! [img]graemlins/cake.gif[/img]

[Ilander]

Originally posted by Luvian: ... The colony is 40 years old. At first they had enough material to create 10k child. They were supposed to have a reproduction phase when they reached 20, and then another when those new child would reach 20 too. That's 2 generation. But from those 10k, 40 years later, there more than 100k people. We also learn that they are at their 4th generation. This mean they probably start having sex when they are 10 years old! or they wouldn't have time to have 4 generations in 40 years. To get to 100k people from 10k in 40 years, every female would also need to have a lot of children...) ...

So, I've made this my problem of the day...and here's the assumptions the author made, if they ever broke out a calculator and figured things out...

1)All females will produce one child a year...This isn't completely true, the rate could be slightly higher (4/3 children per year, max...and that's medically impossible)...but 1 per year makes the calculations easier, and allows for some health care that would keep production going more smoothly.

2)50% of the initial population is female, 50% of all children produced are female.

3)Mortality rates are zero, fertility rates are 1.

Given that, we find that:

{population as a function of time, in thousands of people and in years}

From t=0 to t=20, P(t) = 10

From t=20 to t=40, P(t) = 10 + 5 (t - 20)

This yields 110 thousand people at 40 years.

Personally, considering the particulars of the population, I would think they would begin "production" a little earlier, so, in my estimates, I used 15 years old, for simplicity in the math, and for other reasons based upon the scenario outlined in your description of the society.

thus,



From t=0 to t=15, P(t) = 10
From t=15 to t=30, P(t) = 10 + 5(t - 15)
From t=30 to t=45, P(t) = 10 + 5(t - 15) + 5(t-15)(t - 30)

This would yield a population of 1385 thousand, or 1.385 million people in 40 years.

That third generation is where such a population really starts to take off...

The problems with this kind of population, besides the ethical and logistic ones (which are significant!) is that it is increasingly female, and the average age goes lower and lower.

Incidentally, for times past the third generation, I haven't bothered to work out, but it seems like a fun little exercise...just don't try to extend it indefinitely, or you'll have to use differential equations, and try and factor in death rates!

[Luvian]

Originally posted by Ilander: quote: Originally posted by Luvian: ... The colony is 40 years old. At first they had enough material to create 10k child. They were supposed to have a reproduction phase when they reached 20, and then another when those new child would reach 20 too. That's 2 generation. But from those 10k, 40 years later, there more than 100k people. We also learn that they are at their 4th generation. This mean they probably start having sex when they are 10 years old! or they wouldn't have time to have 4 generations in 40 years. To get to 100k people from 10k in 40 years, every female would also need to have a lot of children...) ...

So, I've made this my problem of the day...and here's the assumptions the author made, if they ever broke out a calculator and figured things out...

That third generation is where such a population really starts to take off...

The problems with this kind of population, besides the ethical and logistic ones (which are significant!) is that it is increasingly female, and the average age goes lower and lower.

Incidentally, for times past the third generation, I haven't bothered to work out, but it seems like a fun little exercise...just don't try to extend it indefinitely, or you'll have to use differential equations, and try and factor in death rates! [/QUOTE]Well, you're certainly better at math than me, it's been a while... I tried calculating it too but gave up. At first when I started I also gave 15 year as the minimum for reproduction. You need to factor in puberty, and even with futuristic medecine, it seem to me that childbirth younger than that would be really dangerous.

But that was before I got to the part where it was said they were on their 4th generation. Since it's 40 year later, and for it to be 4 generation, you can't go higher than 10 year. That's without even considering pregrancy period, if you include it they probably would have to be 9 year old, that's ridicullous!

Generation 1 get to 9, get pregrant, give birth at 10. Generation 2 is born, age to 9, get pregnant and give birth at 10, that's 2 generation and we're 20 year in. Two more cycle like that and the 4th generation has just been born when the ship get there.

[ 01-24-2006, 02:23 PM: Message edited by: Luvian ]