Terrorist nuclear threat? What percentage?

[Ronn_Bman]

When terroists get a nuke, how long will it take for them to use it?

For the last 56 years nations have waited in dread for a nuclear assault. How long do you think it will take, once terrorist get a nuke? Obviously, I dont' believe they'll get interconteniental capiblity.

I believe, 100%, that in the next 10 years we will see a, non-nation, nuclear explosion. Due to the proliferation of nuclear arms, the fall of the former Soviet empire, and other world events.

This possiblity horrifies me, but I'm curious, what odds do you give this possiblity? Do you think, terrorist might get the "bomb" and not use it?

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"The Martyr" (excerpt)

There is sobbing of the strong,
And a pall upon the land;
But the People in their weeping
Bare the iron hand:
Beware the People weeping
When they bare the iron hand.

--Herman Melville (written after the assasination of President Abraham Lincoln)

[This message has been edited by Ronn_Bman (edited 10-17-2001).]

[Neb]

The chance that terrorists will at some point gain nuclear explosives is 2000:1, that they will NOT use it I cannot say anything about, it depends on HOW they use it, detonating it isn't something that I give good odds, them using it to hold something hostage however, I can easily see, I also doubt 100% that they will ever get intercontinental capability.

(Please excuse the quality of this post, but it's 2:24 in the morning here.)

[Ronn_Bman]

Originally posted by Neb: The chance that terrorists will at some point gain nuclear explosives is 2000:1

What makes you place the odds so high?

Terroist will get a small scale nuke in the next 10 years, and only then will the world take terrorism seriously


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"The Martyr" (excerpt)

There is sobbing of the strong,
And a pall upon the land;
But the People in their weeping
Bare the iron hand:
Beware the People weeping
When they bare the iron hand.

--Herman Melville (written after the assasination of President Abraham Lincoln)

[skywalker]

Originally posted by Ronn_Bman: What makes you place the odds so high? Terroist will get a small scale nuke in the next 10 years, and only then will the world take terrorism seriously

I think the world is taking terrorism pretty seriously right now. More than any other time in history!

Mark

[Neb]

Originally posted by Ronn_Bman: What makes you place the odds so high? Terroist will get a small scale nuke in the next 10 years, and only then will the world take terrorism seriously

Two reasons:

1) There is an abundance of nuclear weapons around, many smaller nations also have nukes, some terrorists like Osama Bin Laden are pretty rich and earn about as much as a small country each year.

2) There are SO many people who don't care what they sell is being used for, as long as they earn some money on the deal, one of these is SURE to see an excellent deal selling a nuke to the terrorists.

[John D Harris]

As soon as they get a nuke and can deliver it, by hand if need be they will use it! They have shown they will use what ever they can use to terrorize.

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Crustiest of the OLD COOTS
Airline ticket to Afghanistan $800
High powered rifle with scope $1000
Hotel room with roof access $100
A clean Head shot on that sack of Horse Manure Usuma Bin Laden PRICELESS!

[Liliara]

If anyone hits America with a nuke...Uh oh! Everyone has to worry then! We would definately fire one back to obliterate them.

It would be pretty hard to carry out the dream of an all Islamic state in a world going through a nuclear holocaust!

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Captain of Bouncers, Boogre Bar

LH Member


"I've had it up to here, listening to a small segment of people try to put down America! America's the greatest land on Earth, and we oughta be proud of what we have! I'm proud of America, I'm proud of our people, and I'm gonna prove it. We're American and DAMN proud of it! Frankly I'm getting a little ticked off...go ta ****"... Dink (if anyone knows who originally said this, please let me know!)

[domingo]

hmmmm ..... see what happens when two of the smallest particals in an atom disapear and turn into pure energy ..... devastating, just hope they don't figure out how to turn more than they already have with the hydrogen bomb etc. ..... sorry for digressing but I wanted to get that out of my system, back to the subject ...... you have to realize that many of these countries such as the soviet union do not have properly maintained nukes ... most of their plutonium is way past being usable (there is kind of an experation date on that stuff) and especially one atained through a small organization etc. would have very little probability of being capable of what it is supposed to be, but if they do get one that works ..... then God help us all ... just my 2 cents

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You can only call someone something so many times before they become that which you did not wish them to be!
Bad things happen to bad people!
Founding Father of TLFB

[This message has been edited by domingo (edited 10-18-2001).]

[250]

you have to know that, they probally explode the nuke before they launch it...

I dont think they have the resource to launch a nuke from a secretive place, and still accurately hit US. so what they can do is, have someone tight a mini nuke bomb around his chest, then walk to white house and triger it, like in the movie:

"Don't move! I have bomb here! Don't shoot me, you gonna kill us all!!"

[Ryanamur]

Personnally, given Bin Ladden's close ties to Pakistan, I wouldn't be surprised if he already had nuclear capability. Now, what he as to figure out is how to smuggle it into the US without anyone noticing.

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I'm the Wanderer without a clan... I bring justice without favorism. Though you may not agree with it, my judgement is final... and inconsequential