3 doors, 2 pigs and a Ferrari! - Page 5

Jaradu · 07-27-2005, 05:51 PM

Not convinced, sadly.

robertthebard · 07-27-2005, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cloudbringer:
Why does this thread make me think of Magnum PI? Luau's, ferrari's and crazed people knocking down doors....

So is it a pig or a goat and what if the chooser WANTS the barnyard animal instead of the car? [img]graemlins/biglaugh.gif[/img]

Bad Cloudy, no chocolate...

andrewas · 07-27-2005, 07:19 PM

OK. Forget the removal of the door and go back a step. Before the host opens his door, we have a set of 1, containing the door we picked, and a set of 2, containing the remainder. Which set is more likely to have the car in it?

The set of 2. The host then removes a pig from that set, leaving them with one door each, but this does not change the odds. The car was probably in set 2, and it is still probably in set 2. There is no chance the car has been moved to set 1, it is where it always was.

In effect, you can stick with your original choice, or you can switch to choosing *both* of the other doors.

Lanesra · 07-28-2005, 08:21 AM

Well done Andrewas - I'm glad to see that some Aberdonians understand simple probability.

Aragorn1 · 07-28-2005, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by andrewas:
OK. Forget the removal of the door and go back a step. Before the host opens his door, we have a set of 1, containing the door we picked, and a set of 2, containing the remainder. Which set is more likely to have the car in it?

The set of 2. The host then removes a pig from that set, leaving them with one door each, but this does not change the odds. The car was probably in set 2, and it is still probably in set 2. There is no chance the car has been moved to set 1, it is where it always was.

In effect, you can stick with your original choice, or you can switch to choosing *both* of the other doors.

Good explaination.
OK, now read these words while looking at my picture, that should help

.

Pop 'n Fresh · 07-30-2005, 10:36 AM

If they wanted you to get the car they'd give it to you.

Peep through the keyhole and look for a car or look under the door and search for some wheels.

The pigs would no doubt need to be fed and they would do craps so which doors smell worst and what crude sounds can you hear from them.

Just open the doors jump in the ferrari and drive away. It's not like whoever put you up to this is god or anything and what power do they have to stop you?

My mental power is very limited

Charlie · 07-30-2005, 10:51 AM

I think there's a pig named Ferrari behind one of the doors.

Felix The Assassin · 07-31-2005, 01:02 AM

Hmm, looking at this as a life-time member of the 'beer math' hall of foamers, I conclude:

The host will always (100%) show you a door without the grand prize behind it.
That means you will always have a 50% chance at having the opportunity to blow the grand prize.

He can't do it with two doors, no extra door to add confusion. Four or more doors are to many, and even adds confusion to the host, and the sponsor.

Therefore, you will always have 50% chance, either the door YOU picked, or the door the host did NOT pick, your choice, 50 / 50.

View Poll Results: Should you:
Stick	14	48.28%
Swap	9	31.03%
It doesn't matter - it's 50-50	6	20.69%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

07-27-2005, 07:19 PM	#43
andrewas Harper Join Date: October 2, 2001 Location: Aberdeen, Scotland Age: 42 Posts: 4,774	OK. Forget the removal of the door and go back a step. Before the host opens his door, we have a set of 1, containing the door we picked, and a set of 2, containing the remainder. Which set is more likely to have the car in it? The set of 2. The host then removes a pig from that set, leaving them with one door each, but this does not change the odds. The car was probably in set 2, and it is still probably in set 2. There is no chance the car has been moved to set 1, it is where it always was. In effect, you can stick with your original choice, or you can switch to choosing both of the other doors. __________________ [img]\"http://www.sighost.us/members/Zvijer/andrewas.gif\" alt=\" - \" />

07-30-2005, 10:36 AM	#46
Pop 'n Fresh Manshoon Join Date: November 3, 2004 Location: FlagStaff Hill S.A. Australia Age: 43 Posts: 171	If they wanted you to get the car they'd give it to you. Peep through the keyhole and look for a car or look under the door and search for some wheels. The pigs would no doubt need to be fed and they would do craps so which doors smell worst and what crude sounds can you hear from them. Just open the doors jump in the ferrari and drive away. It's not like whoever put you up to this is god or anything and what power do they have to stop you? My mental power is very limited __________________ [img]\"http://img79.imageshack.us/img79/5936/sbadfurday00037fg.png\" alt=\" - \" /><br />BRING ME SOME SWEETCORN!<br /><br />What do the Enterprise and toilet paper have in common? They both circle Uranus in search of klingons

07-30-2005, 10:51 AM	#47
Charlie Lord Ao Join Date: March 3, 2001 Location: London, England Age: 30 Posts: 2,021	I think there's a pig named Ferrari behind one of the doors. __________________ [img]\"http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/ladyzekke/england1.gif\" alt=\" - \" /><br />One Love, Peace. [img]\"http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/ladyzekke/pissr.gif\" alt=\" - \" /> [img]\"http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/ladyzekke/piss.gif\" alt=\" - \" />

07-31-2005, 01:02 AM	#48
Felix The Assassin The Dreadnoks Join Date: September 27, 2001 Location: Orlando, FL Age: 61 Posts: 3,608	Hmm, looking at this as a life-time member of the 'beer math' hall of foamers, I conclude: The host will always (100%) show you a door without the grand prize behind it. That means you will always have a 50% chance at having the opportunity to blow the grand prize. He can't do it with two doors, no extra door to add confusion. Four or more doors are to many, and even adds confusion to the host, and the sponsor. Therefore, you will always have 50% chance, either the door YOU picked, or the door the host did NOT pick, your choice, 50 / 50. __________________ The Lizzie Palmer Tribute Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty. John F. Kennedy 35th President of The United States The Last Shot Honor The Fallen Jesus died for our sins, and American Soldiers died for our freedom. If you don't stand behind our Soldiers, please feel free to stand in front of them.

07-27-2005, 05:51 PM	#41
Jaradu Silver Dragon Join Date: July 29, 2003 Location: Shrewsbury, England Age: 33 Posts: 1,635	Not convinced, sadly.

07-28-2005, 08:21 AM	#44
Lanesra Symbol of Cyric Join Date: March 29, 2001 Location: Twititania, Europe Age: 63 Posts: 1,221	Well done Andrewas - I'm glad to see that some Aberdonians understand simple probability.

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