Is this guy for real?

[Firestormalpha]

U.S. to split by 2010?

KGB-trained official's prediction of looming breakup spurs celebrity, scorn For seriously predicting that the United States will break into six parts in June or July of 2010, Igor Panarin has suddenly become a Russian state-media celebrity. Hardly a day goes by without another interview or two for the KGB-trained, Kremlin-backed senior analyst. The clamor in Russia for his ideas is growing, he says. Panarin's disintegration divination comes complete with a map. In it, Alaska goes to Russia. Hawaii goes to Japan or China. "The California Republic" — the West from Utah and Arizona to the Pacific — goes to China. "The Texas Republic" — the South from New Mexico to Florida — goes to Mexico. "Atlantic America" — the Northeast from Tennessee and South Carolina up to Maine — joins the European Union. And "The Central North-American Republic" — the Plains from Ohio to Montana — goes to Canada. Few Americans paid any attention to his novel views until this week, when the Wall Street Journal trumpeted them on Page 1. Within hours, the U.S. media began the counterattack. This is preposterous, Time magazine said in a blog. "The man knows nothing at all about American regional differences," wrote Justin Fox, Time's business and economics columnist. South Carolina is like Massachusetts? Tennessee will join with France? Idaho will find something to love about California? Wyoming will snuggle up to Ottawa? Alabama will happily report to Mexico City? "Yeah, right!" Fox wrote. "Has this man ever been to the United States? Has he never even heard of 'The Nine Nations of North America'? . . . Igor, do your homework!" Ahem, yes, that 1981 "Nine Nations" book I myself wrote. Well, I was young. I needed the money. The regional bloggers who find it useful to view the continent functioning as if it were nine separate economies or distinct cultures that pay little regard to state or national boundaries have been loudly a-chirp about Panarin for a while. Unhappy places Their complaints are similar to Time's. They're not so concerned about some Russkie anticipating American disunion, devolution, revolution, fratricide and overthrow of the government. What the hey, we celebrate those every Fourth of July. Never uncommon in North America is the geopolitical urge to take a walk for a pack of cigarettes. At any given time, there are as many as a dozen secession movements ongoing. The one getting the most press currently is the Second Vermont Republic. Such unhappy places usually want to secede because they are marginal, cheated, powerless, sparsely populated areas neglected by the big urban centers that control powerful states. The reason their secession movements are thoroughly ignored is that they are marginal, cheated, powerless, sparsely populated areas neglected by the big urban centers that control powerful states. The regionalists' problem with Panarin is that he couldn't be more clueless about where the real fault lines of culture and values are. Las Vegas beats with the same heart as Portland, Ore.? Detroit is the soul mate of Bozeman, Mont.? Good Lord, Richmond is the same place as Fairfax? 'Crystal ball' One possible explanation for how Panarin's hypothesis is being eagerly lapped up in Russia is that the Kremlin is projecting its own insecurities onto the United States. "What may be clouding Mr. Panarin's crystal ball is the mistaken belief that U.S. citizens view themselves in the same way that residents of the old Soviet Union viewed that state," e-mails Thomas J. Baerwald, an investigator in a project called "Beyond Borders" and past president of the Association of American Geographers. Just before the breakup of the Soviet Union, four Soviet and five American geographers started "Beyond Borders" to map within the Soviet empire the human values that endure — those that have taken centuries to produce and are not likely to change precipitously. Their approach was based on the idea that all countries have underlying patterns of pasts, futures, loyalties, industries, climates, resources and politics. These functional cultural regions, in turn, frequently are far more significant than the arbitrary boundaries and surveyors' mistakes that usually make up politically defined borders. To take one former Soviet example: The European gateway of St. Petersburg, across from Scandinavia, is profoundly different from all those Muslim "-stans" north and east of Iran, from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan, that declared their independence from the Soviet Union the first chance they got. Those departures still burn some Russians who hate the loss of empire. Perhaps they would like to shed crocodile tears at the idea that history might repeat itself near the U.S.-Mexico border.

Seriously, is it just me or does this Panarin guy have a few screws loose?

Thought's, opinions?

[VulcanRider]

I could see the US someday breaking up. I doubt it'll be in my lifetime. Who says the parts will swear allegiance to other countries instead of wanting to stand on their own? And since each new country has nukes within their borders, I don't see a forced annexation from outside. The Texas Republic goes to Mexico? More likely, with no more interference from Washington D.C., the Texas Republic starts a southern expansion...

[Firestormalpha]

Well, I don't kid myself with the notion that US will be forever. But seriously, divided by 2010? The sense of national identity is still too strong for that to occur.


ADD: Cool, new Avatar

[Gangrell]

My knowledge on tectonic plates may be a bit cloudy, but if I'm not too mistaken, don't land masses only move about 1-2 cm a year? Yeah, the US might split up, but it'll be done slowly and over several decades at best.

But yeah, he's got issues

[Bungleau]

Newspaper's gotta sell copies, you know... and December 29 is a pretty slow news day.

I don't see it happening, and certainly not with the entire nation dissolving and falling under other countries. If anything like that *were* to happen, I'd expect something like Yugoslavia - half a dozen different independent countries.

[Albromor]

I remember that Nine Nations book mentioned in the article when it first came out. I even read a little of it and being a sociology major my response was the author didn't have a clue.

Hmmm, so let me see, according to Panarin not only will we break up but then none of the 6 independent parts will remain independent but come under another power?!

There is a fiercely independent streak in the majority of Americans that he has no clue about.

[thecarrotdude]

Tis a joke

[Sever]

2010 eh?

Damn. There's no way i can monopolise the world popcorn market by then.

[Kakero]

How about we wait till Jun/July 2010 and see what happen? It's only one and a half year wait.

[Stratos]

Panarin is real, I've seen pictures of him, but his predictions are somewhat out there.

He's been saying this for a few years now, if I'm not mistaken.