International Institute for Strategic Studies report & additions/comments

[shamrock_uk]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/3756650.stm

Iraq war 'helped al-Qaeda recruit' By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent The war in Iraq probably helped boost al-Qaeda recruitment, according to a report from leading Western think-tank. The report, the annual Military Balance by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, does not dwell on the causes of the war. But it does consider its effects and has some highly critical comments. It says that the risks of terrorism to Westerners and Western assets in Arab countries "appeared to increase after the Iraq war began in March 2003". It says that al-Qaeda was forced to disperse after the invasion of Afghanistan but remained "a viable and effective 'network of networks' ". Iraqi insurgents need to be brought into the political process Dr John Chipman Director, IISS "It is probable that recruitment generally has accelerated on account of Iraq," the report concludes. "Al-Qaeda has added Iraq to its list of grievances. With Osama Bin Laden's public encouragement, up to 1,000 foreign jihadists may have infiltrated Iraq." The editor of the report, Colonel Christopher Langton, said there were too few US and other foreign troops in Iraq for the task. Europe targeted Dr John Chipman, director of the IISS, said that the strategy for regaining control was to use air power and long range artillery to "break morale in areas of intense insurgent activity" while at the same time trying to negotiate with community leaders. Success in Iraq would depend on three things, he said. First, it was "essential that Iraqi security forces become the primary instrument of law and order". "At the moment, they number 36,000 and it may take five years for them to obtain the aptitude necessary to guarantee stability," he said. The implication of that comment is that foreign troops might be in Iraq until then. Second, the Iraqi government had to move quickly to build up its administrative capacity so that Iraqis experienced the "civil benefits" of local rule. Thirdly, "Iraqi insurgents need to be brought into the political process. The elections (in January) could play a crucial part in this process." Dr Chipman also predicted that al-Qaeda would increasingly target Europe because US territory had become less vulnerable since 11 September. "Accordingly, Europe, where Islamic radicalisation is on the rise and whose southern exposure makes it vulnerable to terrorist infiltration from the Middle East and North Africa, may figure more prominently in jihadist targeting," he said. The emphasis in this year's Military Balance continues a trend away from the old concentration on the balance of conventional forces around the world. No change These are still listed but so, too, are the estimated strengths of "non-state armed groups" whose activities now dominate strategic thinking for many governments. But getting information on such groups is obviously hard in some cases. The one led by the man most sought after in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is simply said to have "several hundred" members. Dr Chipman said that if Senator John Kerry was elected US president, "for allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, the subject matter of their dealings with the US would not dramatically change." However, he believed that a Kerry administration would take an immediate interest in non-proliferation issues. Mr Kerry favoured bilateral talks, for example, with North Korea and Iran. As for a second Bush term, Dr Chipman picked up on a theme which is currently being much discussed among foreign policy watchers - whether Mr Bush would have "less to prove" in a second four-year administration. Dr Chipman said that some changes "in the inflections and focus of security policy" might be expected if Mr Bush was re-elected. Published: 2004/10/19 15:39:41 GMT © BBC MMIV

That's quite interesting, I went to a seminar given by Dr. Toby Dodge who is a Middle-East lecturer at London uni as well as a member of this particular think tank, and he said much the same thing. Always nice when what you're told is published in an official document [img]smile.gif[/img]

Some of the things revealed in this seminar were pretty shocking though. I don't think anyone can condemn the fact that Saddam's been removed, but the handling by this administration has been so inept it's almost untrue and the American people are going to get a shock.

The seminar was Political Mobilisation in the Absence of Civil Society or State; Islamic Nationalism in post-Saddam Iraq and basically discussed the complete absence of civil society and how the American's planned to just inherit existing institutions and the civil service etc. Of course, when the looting started, the civil servants went home to protect their wives and homes.

The first major problem and a key argument for multilateral involvement is that the Pentagon clearly doesn't have the expertise needed to set up a government and civil society from scratch, and clearly lacks knowledge of the region generally.

The second is that although Donald Rumsfeld assures the American voters that the Iraqi forces will be in charge of their affairs by Christmas, this report is right - five years is a good estimate. In the seminar, he gave lots of other examples where it's been necessary to train an entire security force from the ground up and said that five years was an agreed-on estimate in benign conditions! Rumsfeld is living in a dream world.

The third is general American tactics, and to illustrate this he used the example of Falluja. First, some background: Dr. Dodge was one of the few academics allowed into Iraq during sanctions and has been back several times since the end of the war - in other words, he knows an awful lot both about the country and has many friends and contacts there. He was talking to people near the city of Falluja and was asking them what had been going on there; trying to ascertain the events outside of the media blanket.

Now, Falluja was always a very conservative city, renowned for its spiritual atmosphere and for being a very religious, law-abiding place. One of the driving forces behind neo-conservative doctrine, Paul Wolfowitz, stated that Falluja was a "hotbed of former regime loyalists" (before the recent fighting broke out).

When Baghdad fell, all the party figures and regime members scarpered out of Falluja immediately and went into hiding. The usual looting began, but the Imam's stepped in, restored order and even managed to return some of the goods taken! Then the American's rolled in and turned the place upside down looking for the former regime figures that Wolfowitz insisted were there, and as you can imagine didn't endear themselves to the local population by their actions or the manner in which they went about it. This culminated in the arrest of two Imam's and in a subsequent demonstration in the streets to protest this, the troops opened fire and 17 Iraqi's were killed and around 70 more wounded. And it went downhill from there. And that, Ladies and Gents, is why Fallujua only became a problem over half a year after the fall of Saddam.

As for the report, I'm glad it didn't fall into the trap of discussing the reasons or validity of the war. For people who question the extent to which outsiders have a vested interest in the US elections, I would only point you to Iraq. I don't think a lot of people have woken up and seen that it will be a generation at least before Iraq is a stable society once more, and that's if a multilateral force is brought in ASAP as America is either unwilling/unable (honestly don't know the answer to that one!) to commit enough troops to get the job done. And if Bush gets back in, I can't even imagine a way out of the current situation. This election will have the gravest of consequences for us all.

[ 10-19-2004, 02:45 PM: Message edited by: shamrock_uk ]

[Stratos]

Interresting, I have a seminar myself tomorrow in my political science class, and the topic is democratization. The democratization processes in the Muslim world in general, and in Iraq in particular will be given much attention.

[Timber Loftis]

Ever notice how all of these "Iraq helped AQ recruit" reports never compare the relative rates of recruitment vs. how fast we can kill or jail the assholes. I'm fine with AQ recruitment going up by 100% so long as AQ mortality rates go up by 200%!!!

[shamrock_uk]

Lol, TL, good point. In a way that's the silver lining behind the very dark cloud of suicide bombings - we don't have to catch them afterwards.

Do share the highlights Stratos if anything interesting comes up, I'd be interested to hear. My ones are part of a whole series on Iraq throughout the term, next week is:

22 October
Dr Ibrahim Marashi, Sabanci University, Ankara, Turkey
Iraq's Cyber Insurgency: The Internet, Mass Media and the Iraqi Resistance

Which should be interesting, and I doubt the mass media are going to come off well...