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Old 03-27-2007, 11:13 AM   #31
shamrock_uk
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Yeah, it's appreciated [img]smile.gif[/img]

From one of the earlier links I posted, it looks like the British ships were operating as part of an American taskforce in the gulf, so that may be why your ships are already there. Not sure whether we were directly under American command, but certainly doing a similar sort of mission.

I guess we're kindof in an unfortunate situation. If we attack Iran militarily we lose the ability to play 'good cop' in the negotiations with Iran over their nuclear programme. Also, Lebanon/Gaza will no doubt be fresh in the minds of policymakers to show that a military operation is pretty unlikely to be able to retrieve captured soldiers.

I suspect that diplomacy is the right way to handle this, if we don't mind losing face as a country. It's no bad thing to concentrate the mind with a show of force on their doorstep though, we don't want people taking liberties after all, which is why having an American fleet sitting there is pretty cool [img]smile.gif[/img]
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Old 03-27-2007, 12:16 PM   #32
Larry_OHF
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Quote:
Originally posted by shamrock_uk:
Yeah, it's appreciated [img]smile.gif[/img]

From one of the earlier links I posted, it looks like the British ships were operating as part of an American taskforce in the gulf, so that may be why your ships are already there. Not sure whether we were directly under American command, but certainly doing a similar sort of mission.

I guess we're kindof in an unfortunate situation. If we attack Iran militarily we lose the ability to play 'good cop' in the negotiations with Iran over their nuclear programme. Also, Lebanon/Gaza will no doubt be fresh in the minds of policymakers to show that a military operation is pretty unlikely to be able to retrieve captured soldiers.

I suspect that diplomacy is the right way to handle this, if we don't mind losing face as a country. It's no bad thing to concentrate the mind with a show of force on their doorstep though, we don't want people taking liberties after all, which is why having an American fleet sitting there is pretty cool [img]smile.gif[/img]
Wow...you just helped me see the whole thing in a new light!

If the UK was there working under US reasons, that would make it our responsibility to be a major part in getting those men free. I would not expect anything less.

Also,,,as you said, the UK is viewed by the world in a better way than is the US, so if the world is expecting the US to be the heavy hammer of Iranian Slaying +10, then we do our bad cop job while the good cop (UK) keeps their appearance as the country easier to work with, more reasonable, and all that. I can see why the US would want to keep the UK in that good cop position with the enemy. Therefore, we are making a big spectacle over there in the water now while Britain is talking.

However, I would LOVE to see the British Navy live up to their reputation as the dominant world power my history books talk about. Isn't the British Navy still larger than the US?
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Old 03-27-2007, 01:21 PM   #33
machinehead
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...yal_Navy_ships
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current...tes_Navy_ships
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Old 03-27-2007, 01:39 PM   #34
PurpleXVI
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If I may add mainland EU commentary on the UK being a "good cop"? Most people I talk to seem to simply see the UK as being a wannabe US state, or at the very least as a highly impressionable little brother(At least when it comes to the UK government) who follow the US course on most things.

As much as the UK may want to play the "good cop," I have the feeling that many are going to treat the US and the UK as one homogenous mass.

I also have my doubts that the Iranians are going to fall for that considering how obviously close the US and UK ties are. If anything, the impression that I'm getting is that most people actually have more trust in, and respect for, the US because at least they go their own way(No matter how misguided, corrupt or downright terrible people might see that path as being.) while the UK just seems to follow.

I also think that no matter whose navy gets to be the spearhead against Iran, they're going to pay dearly for it. We all know about those US war games that the US military wanted to keep a lid on, yeah, those, the ones where a high-tech surface navy got OBLITERATED by low-tech fishing boats, inflateable rafts with machine guns and Cessnas. They don't even need to take down an entire fleet, if they could just sink or cripple a carrier, then they've set a fleet back years, not to mention likely breaking the back of it's morale.
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Old 03-27-2007, 03:21 PM   #35
Larry_OHF
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The whole concept of good cop/bad cop is transparent to many folks today anyway, because even in my psychology class we learned as part of the curriculum that both cops are out to get their suspect anyway, but knowledge of this before-hand does not always work against the idea that the good cop is seen as the more rational one, and therefore more successful in getting a confession out of a person.
In a situation where the UK is trying to "talk" to Iran, the US is showing off its muscle so that Iran would continue "talking" because the alternative is not so pretty.

At least, that is what I am imagining when I look at this with my new insight thanks to this thread. I cannot, however, claim to know anything about the subject and my only hope is that the UK will get their men (and one woman) back unscathed.
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Old 03-27-2007, 10:32 PM   #36
Felix The Assassin
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How ironic that we were discussing a Spring offensive into Iran earlier over in the GD forum.
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Old 03-28-2007, 06:50 AM   #37
shamrock_uk
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The Royal Navy has just released GPS data showing that the Brits were 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi waters when they were seized:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6501555.stm

Interestingly, a different link I was looking out points out that the treaty (made in 1970-something) drawing the border lines was actually broken by Iraq when Saddam invaded Iran so perhaps can't be relied on.

[ 03-28-2007, 06:56 AM: Message edited by: shamrock_uk ]
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:16 AM   #38
wellard
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give them 1 week to return the seamen. If not returned then ....


Oblitarate the nuclear reactor and surrounds

then give them a further six days to return the seamen. If not returned then ....

Oblitarate every navy vessal bigger than a row boat, every airfield and plane and destroy all army barracks.

then give them a further 5 days to return the seamen. If not returned then ....

Destroy Tehran

Maybe then they will understand the English expression .... "dont ■■■■ with the UK just ask the Argentins and every other piss weak country in history"
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Old 03-28-2007, 08:29 AM   #39
PurpleXVI
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Well, Wellard, your tactical genius aside, may I point out some flaws in your plan?

#1: No one has the faintest damn clue where all of the nuclear reactors, ore refinery sites or even research labs are. A lot of them might actually be well underground.

#2: It has been proven that even a low-tech surface navy with the support of a few Cessnas could obliterate the US surface navy, I have my doubts that the UK surface navy would fare much better.

#3: Destroy Tehran? Yeah, sure, because it's not like the Iranians have any sort of airforce or anti-air defenses. And it's not like they'd annihilate the Coalition ground forces in Iraq or anything. I mean, those beleaguered ground forces constantly under attack by insurgents, who'll suddenly get a LOT more money, gear and support from regular Iranian army units as well as Revolutionary Guard maniacs.
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Old 03-28-2007, 09:07 AM   #40
shamrock_uk
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1) The underground problem is a real issue with Iran actually. They've been building their nuclear sites really deep so they are probably imprevious even to 'bunker buster' bombs.

That's one of the main reasons that the US is trying to develop mini-nukes, but this of course provides Iran with a powerful incentive to get nuclear weapons of its own to defend against this possibility.

I do believe that we know the locations of all the relevant sites though.

2) I think this is a little disingenious - there are some fairly remarkable close-range air defense weapons fitted to UK/US warships.

Plus aircraft carriers are by their nature deployed amongst other smaller ships that each specialise in a different form of attack/defense - it would be very challenging to do.

Having said that, you're right to be cautious of course, we lost the HMS Sheffield to an exocet missile in the Falklands war (admittedly due to a combination of bad luck/bad calls, but these happen in war).

3) It is easily within the capability of either the US or the UK to destroy Tehran. If necessary it can be done from miles away in ways (like nuclear missiles) that totally bypass any sort of defensive capability.

Granted, the threat of increased anti-coalition action in Iraq is both real and troubling, but this is only really damaging politically. At the end of the day, there is nothing to stop coalition troops from simply leaving - there is no danger of Iran retaliating with attacks on home soil so in that sense we can operate with impunity.

As always, both a mass civilian slaughter and the prospect of withdrawal from Iraq in the event of an un-repellable Iranian assault are political problems. I would hesitate to underestimate the sheer power gap between the UK/US and Iran, were political considerations to be removed.

[ 03-28-2007, 09:09 AM: Message edited by: shamrock_uk ]
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