Hurricane Number FIVE for Florida to hit us Sunday Night

[Bozos of Bones]

If I may, I'd like to add a few points
4. The global warming can not induce storms. Why? Hot air moves higher into the atmosphere, while the cold air moves on the lower, as it has more weight. Even if we're talking in the extreme, like a +5 degrees warming of the cold air, it would mean that the two airs' temperatures would be closer together, and their movement patterns wouldn't be as violent. The air is heated by the surface of the earth, not by sun beams, meaning only the lower atmosphere is actually affected by it. So yes, if anything, it would mean less storms.
As for the weird hurricane season, I think it's because of the weird once-in-dozens-years occurence with the hurricane and the tsuname seasons' winds cumulating the air pressure differences in the Pacific. IMHO.

[frudi_x]

1. you can't compare global climate models with local short-term weather predictions. both are plagued by different and specific problems, though both also are getting better and more reliable.

2. the difference in solar luminosity between the solar maximum and minimum is about 0.1%, which corresponds to a mean global temperature difference of only about 0.1K, if even that much.

3. that's true, global climate variations have been far greater than the 0.1K temperature increase over the last century. but the facts cannot be ignored - first, increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses lead to an increased greenhouse effect. second, carbon dioxide is the chief greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, other important ones being water vapour (whose concetration increases with higher temperatures) and methane. third, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is up 20% in the last 40 years.
my guess is this does have an effect on global weather. how much of an effect, we can't be sure for now.

[Ziroc]

Originally posted by Arvon: Actually it's not totally unheard of, but is somewhat rare. We are not having more storms now than before. There were peak storms in the 50's and 70's. Global warming ( a farce) wouldn't cause more storms but actually less storms. Think El Nino.

Arvon, I read loads of scientific papers and I mean HARD science. Global Warming is VERY real. Be it caused by human hand or cyclical. Just watch the TV and Weather. These past few years, we keep hearing "Never before seen" "Record breaking.." "Since recordkeeping began" and so on. Ignoring this will not make it go away. Don't fool yourself man. It's not a "joke".

[Ziroc]

Oh yeah, Arvon, why did the Larson B Ice Shelf all melt and collapse then? It's been there for 1000's of years. The sun isn't getting hotter, it's the clouds reflecting heat back down onto earth much of the time.

[Bungleau]

Clouds do act as insulation, keeping the heat in longer. So there is something to that.

However, this many hurricanes... man, I've *got* to tell you we don't get those in Meeeshigan [img]smile.gif[/img] Now, blizzards... that's another story

Remember also that the extent of man's recorded weather tracking is less than two centuries old, in many ways. As a measure of the long-term activities of weather on earth, that's kind of like deciding on the results of a sporting match after the first minute of play...

[Dave_the_quack]

Yikes... lol... everyone is a weather expert
Thanks for the replies, and discussions guys. Anyhoo, I just hope this whole hurricane thing blows over REAL quick...

[Morgan_Corbesant]

Originally posted by Arvon: quote: Originally posted by Dave_the_quack: Arvon, can you enlighten me as to why it is a farce? Im really interested actually... ive heard other people say that and id like to know why..... I dont like being in the dark. [img]smile.gif[/img]

I'll go into a couple of things. It would take too much space and time to fully develop the argument.
1. In most cases the climatologist can't even tell you what the weather is going to be next week much thirty years out.
2. We are and have been, in the past few years, in a solar maximum. Mr Sun is doing the heating not you in your Toyota or SUV.
3. These climate changes have been going on for eons, long before man, and will go on long after man. [/QUOTE]Aye, the "hole in the ozone layer" is a bunch of crap. ITS SUPPOSED TO BE THERE!! it always has, it always will be. It has something to do with "free radicals" or something like that. It is what creates our entire atmosphere. I will do some quick research on it and post more in depth info ASAP.

[Morgan_Corbesant]

Oh, I may be wrong on that last post, I'm kinda tired and my mind is on other stuff but I'm almost certain that is what I meant to say. >Shrug< we'll see after research tomorrow.

[Gxc]

Wow flordia has been getting hit hard lately.. That sucks..

[Sir Goulum]

Originally posted by Ziroc: Oh yeah, Arvon, why did the Larson B Ice Shelf all melt and collapse then? It's been there for 1000's of years. The sun isn't getting hotter, it's the clouds reflecting heat back down onto earth much of the time.

Ice Ages happened, why not Hot Ages?