Run! We're all going to die!

[Lord of Alcohol]

Run where? [img]tongue.gif[/img] Big asteroid coming! Yay!

By Kate Kelland
Reuters

LONDON (July 24) - A massive asteroid could hit Earth in just 17 years' time, destroying life as we know it, a British space expert said on Wednesday.

The asteroid -- the most threatening object ever detected in space -- is 1.2 miles wide and apparently on a direct collision course with Earth.

"Objects of this size only hit the Earth every one or two million years," said Dr Benny Peiser, an asteroid expert at Liverpool John Moore's University in northern England.

"In the worst case scenario, a disaster of this size would be global in its extent, would create a meltdown of our economic and social life, and would reduce us to dark age conditions," he told Reuters.

But Peiser and other space experts say they are pretty confident this nightmare scenario will not come about.

"This thing is the highest threat that has been catalogued, but the scale in terms of the threat keeps changing," said Peter Bond, spokesman for the Royal Astronomical Society.

"If it did hit the Earth it would cause a continental-size explosion...but it is a fairly remote possibility."

The asteroid -- named 2002 NT7 -- was first detected earlier this month by the United States Linear sky survey program.

Since then, Peiser said scientists at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) near-Earth objects team and at Pisa University in Italy have carried out orbit calculations to work out the probability and potential date of impact to define the risk it poses.

Their calculations show it could hit the earth on February 1, 2019.

"The impact probability is below one in a million, but because the first impact date is so early -- only 17 years from now -- and the object is very large, it's been rated on the impact risk Palermo Scale as a positive," Peiser said. "It is the first object which has ever hit a positive rating."

Scientists warn, however, that the risk rating has not been reviewed by the International Astronomical Union, which is the main international body responsible for announcing such risks.

Peiser said 2002 NT7 would continue to be monitored by space experts across the world, and that over time, these observations would probably erase the threat posed by it.

"In all likelihood, in a couple of months additional observations will eliminate this object from the list of potential impacts," he said. "I am very confident that additional observations over time will...show that it is actually not on a collision course with Earth."

But he warned that the world should take this as wake-up call and set about preparing for the reality of an asteroid hit in the future.

"Sooner or later -- and no one can really tell us which it will be -- we will find an object that is on a collision course. That is as certain as "Amen" in church. And eventually we will have to deflect an object from its collision course," he said.

At the moment, he added, scientists fear it could take at least 30 years for the world to be able to devise and set up a mission to deal with such a threat -- a timescale which would be woefully inadequate if the 2019 strike were to happen.

07/24/02 08:56 ET

Copyright 2002 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.

[dizzy]

Well, damn, don't that just suck?

[dizzy]

Ah, I say when the time comes, load up a shuttle full of nukes and blow it away. End of problem.

[andrewas]

Yeah, I saw this. Orbital mechanics is an exact science, but we dont have enough data yet to say whether or not it will hit. Hope it dosent, cos theres no chance of the US and every other space-capable nation getting together without arguments in time to deflect it.

In a couple months there will be a low-key announcement nobody will see to say this things no threat. Either that or theyll announce the end of the world.

[Redblueflare]

17 years from now? Well i'll be entering my mid life crisis by then. [img]tongue.gif[/img] So I'm not that worried. Sides 17 years is plenty of time for an asteroid to change course don't you think?

[andrewas]

Originally posted by dizzy: Ah, I say when the time comes, load up a shuttle full of nukes and blow it away. End of problem.

This things 2 klicks across. Cant blow it into small enough chunks - your way would simply cause us to be hit by *billions* of medium size asteroids with greater total damage. Only practical way is to deflect it, and that means either a large nuclear explosion close to it or ...

There must be an or. Theres always an or. But we have no nukes big enough and no other technology can pack that much power in a small enough package.. Daresay we could come up something in time, but woudnt want to bet my life on it.

[Lord of Alcohol]

I'm thinking we'll have to send up Bruce Willis and Ben Afleck in the shuttles, after all they did it once didnt they?

And Red, pre-planning a mid-life crisis? LOL [img]tongue.gif[/img]

[Beaumanoir]

Originally posted by dizzy: Ah, I say when the time comes, load up a shuttle full of nukes and blow it away. End of problem.

Amen,

But, Uhh... Wouldn't That Just Send Lots Of Little Asteroids At Us? O Well, They'd Burn Up On Entry. But Seriously, They Could Just Nuke It Couldn't They?

[Azred]

We could always test the "nuke the asteroid" hypothesis by sending a lot of nukes to the Moon and blasting a small mountain. If the mountain is totally leveled fairly quickly, then the hypothesis is valid; if not....

[/)eathKiller]

um let's NUKE it just to be safe... come on you want to disarm our aresenal lets disarm it on some space rocks!