War in Iraq "officially" over...where to now?

[Memnoch]

If there can be such a thing as an "official end" to a war, it was apparently today, as the last US troops left Iraq to cross the border into Kuwait. Was it all worth it?

KHABARI CROSSING, Kuwait—The last U.S. soldiers rolled out of Iraq across the border into neighboring Kuwait at daybreak Sunday, whooping, fist bumping and hugging each other in a burst of joy and relief. Their convoy's exit marked the end of a bitterly divisive war that raged for nearly nine years and left Iraq shattered, with troubling questions lingering over whether the Arab nation will remain a steadfast U.S. ally. The mission cost nearly 4,500 American and well more than 100,000 Iraqi lives and $800 billion from the U.S. Treasury. The question of whether it was worth it all is yet unanswered. After a ceremony Thursday in Baghdad formally marking the end of the war, the timing and all other details of the departure of the last convoy were kept under tight secrecy out of security concerns for about 500 troops and more than 110 vehicles that were part of it. The low-key end to the war was just another reminder of how dangerous Iraq remains, even though violence is lower now than at any other time since the 2003 invasion. The last convoy of MRAPs, heavily armored personnel carriers, made a largely uneventful journey out except for a few equipment malfunctions along the way. It was dark and little was visible through the MRAP windows as they cruised through the southern Iraqi desert. The 210-mile trip from a base in southern Iraq took about five hours. When the convoy crossed the border into Kuwait around 7:45 a.m. local time, the atmosphere was subdued inside one of the vehicles, with no shouting or yelling. Along the road, a small group of Iraqi soldiers waved to the departing American troops. "My heart goes out to the Iraqis," said Warrant Officer John Jewell, acknowledging the challenges ahead. "The innocent always pay the bill." Soldiers standing just inside the crossing on the Kuwaiti side of the border waved and snapped photos as the final trucks rumbled over. "I'm pretty excited," said Sgt. Ashley Vorhees. "I'm out of Iraq. It's all smooth sailing from here." The war that began in a blaze of aerial bombardment meant to shock and awe the dictator Saddam Hussein and his loyalists ended quietly and with minimal fanfare. President Barack Obama stopped short of calling the U.S. effort in Iraq a victory in an interview taped Thursday with ABC News' Barbara Walters. "I would describe our troops as having succeeded in the mission of giving to the Iraqis their country in a way that gives them a chance for a successful future," Obama said. ~snip~ Capt. Mark Askew, a 28-year-old from Tampa, Florida who was among the last soldiers to leave, said the answer to the question of whether the Iraq war was worth the cost will depend on what type of country and government Iraq ends up with years from now, whether they are democratic, respect human rights and are considered an American ally. "It depends on what Iraq does after we leave," he said, speaking before the final convoy departed. "I don't expect them to turn into South Korea or Japan overnight." http://www.boston.com/news/world/mid...nds/?page=full

[Memnoch]

At risk of being controversial, I offer the following thought points:

If there can be such a thing as an "official end" to a war, it was apparently today, as the last US troops left Iraq to cross the border into Kuwait. Was it all worth it?

Barack Obama, who voted against the war, had this to say today:

President Barack Obama stopped short of calling the U.S. effort in Iraq a victory in an interview taped Thursday with ABC News' Barbara Walters. "I would describe our troops as having succeeded in the mission of giving to the Iraqis their country in a way that gives them a chance for a successful future," Obama said. http://www.boston.com/news/world/mid...?p1=News_links

Let's try and summarise what it achieved:

• deposed Saddam Hussein in 26 days, ending his dictatorship and eventually executing him, ridding the world of a tyrant
• showed the world that the US military is unstoppable in direct symmetrical combat mano-a-mano. M1A1 Abrams, stealth fighters, all the high tech was pretty much way out of Iraq's league, with their biplanes and pickup trucks with machine guns at the back. After all as Dubya said on a visit to Australia back in 2007: "We're kicking @ass." (this was at a time when Iraq was a more dangerous place than Afghanistan)
• plunged Iraq into a nine years of civil war and insurgency, with warring Sunni-Shia-Kurdish factions, with the US military unable to completely subdue an assymetrical force that they could not find or engage on the battlefield, until David Petraeus came up with the novel idea of bribing the tribal leaders to support the US (yes, money talks anywhere)
• hoped to find WMDs. None were found
• cost 100000 Iraqi and 4500 American lives and US$1 trillion (Dick Cheney said the war would be a "cakewalk" and would only cost $60bn - US debt skyrocketed during this period as Dubya cut taxes by $3 trillion during the same period)
• provided plenty of business for the corporate reconstructors who were to "rebuild" Iraq (Haliburton, etc)
• gave Iraqis democracy (the freedom to vote for who they want to), albeit without the checks and balances and institutions that democracy needs to work - that's for someone else (the Iraqis) to sort out presumably
• trained the Iraqi army, police force, etc. to hold a gun properly and more importantly point it at the right person
• made America's enemies hate it even more, and some of its friends to stop being friends, reduced American influence in the Middle East. Paul Wolfowitz envisaged Iraq as another Israel in the Middle East, today Iraq is closer to Iran than it is to the US

Some useful source material, including the statistics I quoted:

- http://www.boston.com/news/world/mid...?p1=News_links
- http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/201...he-middle-east
- http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...e-kicking-ass/
- http://articles.cnn.com/2002-09-27/p...PM:ALLPOLITICS

So was there actually anything good that came out of the war? I'm sure there was, but I struggle to think of much right now. Hindsight is 20/20. Was it the right thing to do? Where to now for the Iraqi people?

Here's what one of the last US soldiers leaving the country had to say:

Capt. Mark Askew, a 28-year-old from Tampa, Florida who was among the last soldiers to leave, said the answer to the question of whether the Iraq war was worth the cost will depend on what type of country and government Iraq ends up with years from now, whether they are democratic, respect human rights and are considered an American ally. "It depends on what Iraq does after we leave," he said, speaking before the final convoy departed. "I don't expect them to turn into South Korea or Japan overnight." http://www.boston.com/news/world/mid...nds/?page=full

[johnny]

End of the war for the US soldiers perhaps, but not for the Iraqi's, for them the war just started, with the two mainstream muslimreligeons trying to whipe eachother out. There will only be chaos and anarchy in that country for decades to come.

[Davros]

I can't help thinking that balance sheet came out negaitive because I don't think in the end that the US won any lasting influence or support in the area. AQfter they came in and helped Kuwait in the first gulf war they had a much more poistive image in Saudi / Egypt etc because they were supporting and stabilising teh region. The 2nd gulf war didn't have that local trigger - teh US looked more like outside aggressors and eroded that good level of influence. In that respect it seems like a heavy price to pay to be able to say to Saddam that no-one thumbs their nose at the US with impunity.

I rather think that getting the CIA to infect him with a disfiguring disease would have been a cheaper and better way to go.

[Ziroc]

You already see a power vacuum beginning with the Vice Pres in Iraq.. he's starting crap already... mark my words, it'll turn into a tribal war.. And Iran will win, and move in on the land.
Then what do we do? Go BACK??? I don't know.. We should have liberated Iraq and paid for it with Iraqi oil.. I thought that was the plan, right? Did we??


I personally think Obama wanted all the major assets out of Iraq so they wouldn't become targets in case we attack Iran. Israel is REALLY pushing that. I mean, they want to deal with Iran YESTERDAY...
Well, for 16 Months, Iraqi airspace will be free for Israeli jets to fly through to get to Iran if they plan strikes.. after 16 Months are up, the jets they purchased will be airborne... small window....


If you start seeing loads of patriot missile platforms being set up in Israel and in Afghanistan soon, expect an attack on Iran to follow... But China and Russia will NOT be happy with that, and that's the one thing holding us/Israel back from doing it right now... such a precarious balancing act to play.

[Monis]

I think US should relaxe now and go on with the problems inland and stop bothering with all kinda wars only they look out for North Corea then i am happy

[Chewbacca]

Food for thought:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/28/opinio...ife/index.html
Excerpt:

Only Iran can save Iraq By Mohammed Ayoob, Special to CNN updated 11:14 AM EST, Wed December 28, 2011 Editor's note: Mohammed Ayoob is University Distinguished Professor of international relations at Michigan State University and adjunct scholar at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. (CNN) -- Iraq is on the edge of the precipice as a consequence of the standoff between Shia Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, with the former accusing the latter of engaging in terrorism and the latter accusing the former of dictatorial ambitions. This crisis involves all three major sectarian and ethnic groups in Iraq, with al-Hashimi taking refuge in the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq as a guest of Iraq's Kurdish President Jalal Talabani. What happens over the next couple of weeks will determine whether Iraq will continue to exist as a unified state or begin to irretrievably unravel in sectarian strife. Two realities stand out in the midst of all the noise and fury currently surrounding the debate in and over Iraq.

[Azred]

I agree with Mr. Ayoob--Iraq will tear itself into pieces due to the various factions all of whom hate each other. The only reason they haven't done so in the last 30 years already is because first they had Mr. Hussein lording it over all of them and for the last few years our miliary forces have been there. Now that both 500 kg gorillas are gone they can get back to infighting like that have been for the last couple of hundred years.

Many of these problem started when England arbitrarily drew national boundaries all those decades ago.

[Memnoch]

A friend of mine from Pakistan has a different view. Here are his thoughts:

lol im suprised at the naivety shown here. The US acheived its goal. what goal you say? the destruction of a major middle eastern power that had the potential to rival isreal, saudi and other puppets. Why wasnt the simple over throw of saddam enough? why did they have to invade? because you have to understand the underlying reason. It will take decades for Iraq to rebuild, contracts will keep money flowing into US banks and companies for decades, Iran is stronger yet weaker at the same time. America acheived its goals. and they have even blinded their own people to the obvious! what goals did they achieve: 1) continued unfettered access to major oil reserves 2) a threat to its two biggest allies the saudis and isreal has been removed 3) the rise of sunni Islam is in check with the emergence of iranian power in iraq which the americans can keep in check. 4) Iraq is now a third world country, and is no longer a power let alone a stale state 5) any stability fall out will be felt by iran and syria etc 6) contracts contracts contracts for years! 7) a future reason to intervene again if required 8) the removal of a potential russian/chinese ally with a large army and money 9) the destruction of iraqs educational infrastructre thus depriving it and the wider arab world of scientists, engineers and a potential education system that could have helped amny other countrys 10) fear. "fear that we can do what we did to sadam to all of you"

Comments?

[Cerek]

Originally Posted by Memnoch A friend of mine from Pakistan has a different view. Here are his thoughts: Comments?

It's always good to get a different perspective on the "goals" of the war, especially from someone who lives in the Middle East.

Can't really argue with his logic or conclusions....they make a lot of sense. Getting rid of Saddam Hussein may have been the public rallying cry, but it was obviously only a minor objective overall and one that could have been achieved through much cheaper means (as mentioned earlier).

The only "goal" I question at all is the deliberate destruction of the education infrastructure to deny Iraq future scientists and engineers. Then again, considering that some of their scientists and engineers were major targets as well due to their work on developing biological weapons, it is once again hard to deny the logic that destroying the ability for Iraq to educate future scientists and engineers was also one of the primary goals of the war.

From a U.S. perspective, that would be a good strategy; capture or kill the existing scientists and engineers working on high-tech weapons and destroy the infrastructure to educate future scientists and engineers to replace them. It would be the modern technology equivalent of killing the rival tribal leader AND all of his children.

Overall, I would say your friend is pretty accurate in his conclusions.