|
View Poll Results: Should you: | |||
Stick | 14 | 48.28% | |
Swap | 9 | 31.03% | |
It doesn't matter - it's 50-50 | 6 | 20.69% | |
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll |
|
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
07-27-2005, 12:35 AM | #31 |
Iron Throne Cult
|
This is how I undderstand it, which may help those who are still thinking 50/50.
In the first instance, you have a 33% chance that the door you pick will have the car. Therefore, there is a 66% chance that one of the other two doors will have the car. With the information you have to start with (that is, one of these three doors has the car), all you can know is that of the two doors you haven't picked both are equally likely to have the car. So the two doors you haven't picked each have a 50% of 66% chance of having the car (i.e., 33% chance each). Then you are told that one of the doors you haven't picked doesn't have the car. So you now have the information that, of the two doors that together had a 66% chance of having the car, one of them has a 0% of 66% chance of having the car (i.e. 0% chance). Therefore, the other door must have a 100% of 66% chance of having the car (i.e. 66% chance). So the door you originally picked has a 33% chance, the other two doors together have a 66% chance, and since you know one of the 66% doors is not it, then you should swap because the other one must have a 66% chance of being the right door.
__________________
|
07-27-2005, 02:54 AM | #32 |
Quintesson
Join Date: June 13, 2001
Location: Darkness
Age: 37
Posts: 1,033
|
This is very simple, folks...
If you initially pick a pig door, switching after the host eliminates the second incorrect door weill get you the car. You have a 2/3 chance of initially picking a pig door, and thus of getting the car when you switch. If you inititally pick the car door, switching will get you a pig. You have a 1/3 chance of picking the car, and thus getting a pig if you switch. If you stay, the numbers are reversed - you have a 2/3 chance of ending up with a pig after the second pig door is eliminated, and a 1/3 chance of ending up with the car. |
07-27-2005, 05:01 AM | #33 |
Manshoon
Join Date: July 14, 2002
Location: Table of Doom, somewhere near the European Alps.
Posts: 196
|
Well structured and logical arguments from Aelia Jusa and Legolas - when we take over your puny planet you have been earmarked for elevation from our conquered slave labour force.
__________________
I am Dyslexia of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated. |
07-27-2005, 07:17 AM | #34 | |
Symbol of Cyric
Join Date: March 29, 2001
Location: Twititania, Europe
Age: 63
Posts: 1,221
|
Quote:
|
|
07-27-2005, 07:37 AM | #35 | |
Symbol of Cyric
Join Date: July 3, 2001
Location: Cornwall England
Age: 36
Posts: 1,197
|
Quote:
Here's the diagram I found to help explain it: The mathematical PROOF is on one of my posts too, but its quite diffcult to understand. [ 07-27-2005, 07:45 AM: Message edited by: Aragorn1 ] |
|
07-27-2005, 08:37 AM | #36 |
Symbol of Cyric
Join Date: March 29, 2001
Location: Twititania, Europe
Age: 63
Posts: 1,221
|
Let's put it like this. If there are a zillion doors and you choose one you must agree that it's unlikely to have a car behind it. Now I start opening doors, when I get to the end there is one door left unopened and the only reason it's unopened is because I know there is a car behind it.
Simple really. I guess some of you get suprised when every time there is a piece missing in a jigsaw puzzle it's always the last one! |
07-27-2005, 08:45 AM | #37 |
Ironworks Moderator
Join Date: March 1, 2001
Location: Upstate NY USA
Posts: 19,737
|
Why does this thread make me think of Magnum PI? Luau's, ferrari's and crazed people knocking down doors....
So is it a pig or a goat and what if the chooser WANTS the barnyard animal instead of the car? [img]graemlins/biglaugh.gif[/img]
__________________
"Don't take life for granted." Animal (may he rest in peace) |
07-27-2005, 11:22 AM | #38 | |
Zhentarim Guard
Join Date: December 13, 2001
Location: Warsaw
Age: 48
Posts: 328
|
Quote:
Now we see truth! Behind the "good" door, what'll there be instead of a Ferrari?
__________________
Never argue with a woman who\'s holding your schmeckle... |
|
07-27-2005, 04:16 PM | #39 |
Fzoul Chembryl
Join Date: July 13, 2004
Location: Finland
Age: 35
Posts: 1,701
|
Whoah! I actually understood that! Thank you, smart people, that one has always troubled me before.
__________________
|
07-27-2005, 04:32 PM | #40 |
40th Level Warrior
Join Date: July 11, 2002
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 11,916
|
It's a 50/50 shot either way, so swap or don't swap. Now go peddle your voodoo mathematics elsewhere.
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Terrorist Wolf takes Two Pigs Hostage, Demands Potato | Grojlach | General Discussion | 8 | 07-10-2004 05:22 PM |
Pigs in Washington showing mercy to child pornographers! | Son of Osiris | General Discussion | 21 | 07-01-2004 02:44 PM |
Ferrari VS Lamborghini | Xen | General Conversation Archives (11/2000 - 01/2005) | 34 | 07-15-2003 08:46 AM |
In a Pigs Eye....or maybe not. | MagiK | General Conversation Archives (11/2000 - 01/2005) | 50 | 02-20-2003 10:30 PM |
Are men pigs? An article. | Sir Kenyth | General Conversation Archives (11/2000 - 01/2005) | 28 | 03-05-2002 05:14 PM |