is Europe depopulating itself?

[mad=dog]

First of all the article is biased bull for most part. I don't know why, because the latter half is actually sensible enough.
Second of all the article states that "if present fertility patterns continue" this and that will happen. I could make the following statement
"The last decade of the previous century and the first years of the current has seen an alarming increase of so-called boy- and girlbands. If present trends continue the entire human population will be in a boy- or girlband by 2250". This sentense is entirely true. However the proposed outcome is true if and only if the current trend continues. Lets hope it doesn't.
Back to the topic I see no evidence suggesting the trend should continue for fifty years. Heck the trend hasn't even LASTED fifty years yet. The situation is not that simple. You also have to take into account that we are seeing a steadily increasing number of people who try to emigrate to Europe.

[ 06-09-2005, 11:14 AM: Message edited by: mad=dog ]

[shamrock_uk]

Interesting article Morgie. My first reaction is that its nothing to worry about.

The reasons for the current situation are many, most of which have already been mentioned in this thread. Changes in attitudes, an increase in the amount of working women, higher taxes, difficulties of getting onto the housing ladder and less formal relationships (in the UK anyway) all conspire to bring about these population trends.

Is it a problem though? Only insofar as its detrimental to the economic health of the country. Immigration to Britain plays a vital role in keeping our economy supplied with labour in most areas - if the labour market becomes unecessarily tight then higher wages will encourage more, and in the longer-run, a higher rate of population growth. It would help if the government restored tax incentives for married couples too.

The biggest demographic crisis that we face is that associated with pensions, yet any change in the rate of births/deaths would take some 18 years to filter through and so I'm not sure that (i) it's an immediate problem or (ii) an increasing birth rate would be an immediate solution.

Ultimately I'm not sure how useful it is to look at macro trends for something like this - decisions are, after all, taken at the individual level.

When its in the interests of people to have children, they will. I'd guess that people are usually fairly rational over something like this: if they aren't having children, then there's probably a good reason for it.

Lets not forget that the recent expansion of the EU will most likely improve the demographic position of the EU considerably as I would imagine a much higher birthrate exists in these countries.

Incidentally, I must admit I was surprised at lucern's article; I didn't expect net births to be responsible for 60% of US population growth.

[ 06-09-2005, 03:59 PM: Message edited by: shamrock_uk ]