05-13-2003, 11:36 AM
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#111
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Apophis 
Join Date: July 10, 2001
Location: By a big blue lake, Canada
Age: 51
Posts: 4,628
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Quote:
Originally posted by Thorfinn:
Willow, sorry but you are mistaken. Using government exposure limits, assuming risk factors are simply additive, we can prove that the thousands of chemicals in a single apple would exceed the LD-50, i.e., lethal dose 50% of the time. The problem is that the exposure limits are at least one order of magnitude on the side of safety, so if you start combining them, the margins of safety, which are 10-fold larger than the effect itself rapidly make the effect itself irrelevant, lost in the uncertainty of the margin of error.
You know the other error, of course. Not all chemical exposures are additive. Many/most cancel out others. This is common sense. Otherwise, there would be no need of antivenin, or atropine, or heck, of any medication. The fact is that the effects of some chemicals offset the effects of others. Acids cancel out bases. It is literally impossible to predict the effect of 2000 random chemicals on human physiology, particularly when human physiology is so poorly understood at this point, anyway...
I can't tell you what the risk is, but I'll bet my paycheck against yours that multiplying by 2000 is going to be at least two orders of magnitude too high...
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No I'm not mistaken Thorfinn. I completely agree with what you have typed above. I'm not too sure about the two magnitudes too high though. I would bet higher. [img]tongue.gif[/img] But at least we would hava a number for those interested in it.  Get me?
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