Pretty good analysis Shamrock, there are also other categories of people who voted for Bush, those who were voting specifically against Kerry and his history (the folks the Swift Boat Vets were trying to reach) and those who wanted Bush in office to sink the republican ship for the next democrat (I know people who voted for Bush so that Hillary Clinton would have a viable shot at the oval office, rather than waiting 8 more years and then hoping they could keep a democrat in power, not very common historically).
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