You are in way both right, although one is looking at short and one at long term causes. As Mad=dog says, contential power struggles were nothing new, and evryone had plans to invade evryone else to soem extent, the French plan (i forget the number, may have been 45), which involved the invasion of Alscase-Lorraine, at that point in German hands, was carried out in the early stages of the war. WWI was world politics being played out over the conflicts of smaller nations, much like the Cold War, indeed that term had twice applied to uneasy peace between rival contintental powers before the modern day one.
Germany had expanded her navy and was threatening not only her world interests but the UK directly. Germa feared being trapped between hostile RUssia and France, hence the Schleifen plan, meant to eliminate France before Russia could moblize, this was in fact probably the barrier to the aversion of the war. Russia feared Germany's military power, and also need to control the Dardanelles, her link to world, and so supported Balklan nations against AH agression in the area. France had suffered a humiliating defeat in the Franco-Prussian was and wnated her lost regions back, and to restore national honour. There will be other complex relations that also have to be considered, and these are the main ones i can recall now, i has been two years since i studied this period.
The point about Russian mobilisation preventing Peace is thus explained:
Germany feared a war on two fronts, so decided if it came to war to eliminate France then take on Russia.
THis could be accomplised because the Russians woud take a long time to mobilise, although this was greatly over estimated by German planners and along with Von Moltke's alteration of the Schleiffen plan can be seen to be an integral part of its failure.
With the assasination, Russia feared war and began to mobilise, so the Germans could not strike when they were not ready. Germany therfore had to initiate its plans while Russia was unprepared.
Germany could not stop now, unless Russian mobilisation was stopped, and Russia couldn't stop mobilsation, de to the time it would take, leaveing them vulnerable to attack, until the risk of war had subsided, a vicious circle. Interesting documents on this exist, including communication between the Tzar and the Kaiser, all related to try and resolve the crisis if possible, although due to the above factors and the countries' national ambitions, proved to be impossible.
[ 05-30-2005, 08:10 AM: Message edited by: Aragorn1 ]
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