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Old 03-09-2005, 12:45 AM   #8
Legolas
Jack Burton
 

Join Date: March 31, 2001
Location: The zephyr lands beneath the brine.
Age: 41
Posts: 5,459
Typically, a new compound has a chance of 1 in 5000 to 1 in 10000 of actually being sold on the market. About 40% of the cost of creating a new drug is spent on finding such a molecule. On average, a handful will be found and further funding spent on developing those. This is the point where they are patented, and from there it's the average 12 years to completion. By now, out of the 10000 there are maybe 5 to 10 promising compounds. Most of those will fail later on in development for any number of reasons. Say it's a 10 to 1 ratio, but then you're not doing justice to all the work spent on finding those 10 in the first place.

New technologies allow more compounds to be reasearched at once, in less time, and with fewer expenses so that does help.

What does not, are the Me-too type compounds, which are basically slightly modified versions of excisting drugs. These will typically do just about the same thing but work longer, or shorter, swifter or delayed, and aren't as hard to find. Since they're not the same molecule, they get a patent of their own. The main challenge there is convincing others that that drug actually offers an advantage over conventional ones.
Where a broad patent results in others not being able to work in a field for a good number of years, a narrow one results in a lot of the same.
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