Quote:
Originally posted by MagiK:
Where do you get the idea that congress is going to pass "climate change" legislation? As near as I can tell..the last time they checked, they only had 12 votes for it [img]smile.gif[/img] not likely to pass unless it gets a helluva lot more votes.
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Here's how (*prognostication mode*):
I didn't say the Feds, first of all. Under the Clean Air Act, California, and only California, may pass more restrictive laws than the Clean Air Act itself. (Why? -- because their law was already in place when the Clean Air Act came along.) CA has proposed an act that would bring fuel efficiency and Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act. They are still hammering it out.
Now, once CA has a more strict law on the books, the Federal CAA allows other states to adopt the "California Rule." Most Northeastern states have announced an intention to do this, with NY's Attorney General Spitzer at the helm (nice guy -- spoke at my swearing in in Albany).
Now, 2-4 years from now, here is your position if you are Ford or Shell or another multinational:
- GHG regulation of one type in the "CA Rule" states in the US.
- GHG regulation (or lack of) in the other US states.
- GHG rules in all your international relations (Kyoto to enter into effect shortly after Russia ratifies).
These companies will bring it all back to roost in D.C. and tell Congress/President "Enough Already!!! Give us one set of rules!!! And, please quit giving companies that don't have to compete internationally an unfair advantage!!!!"
That, in a nutshell, is how. You can argue my reasoning if you like, but I didn't dream it all up on my own -- it's what we know to be the case in the industry. Just wait around a year or two -- and see if I called it right.
I just had lunch today with a guy from the Chicago Climate Exchange ("CCX"), where companies like AEP, Ford, Motorolla have already signed up to reduce their emissions and participate in carbon trading, in anticipation of needing to be on the "high side" of compliance once the hammers start to fall. These companies aren't spending money on this just because they want to feel good. The have read the tea leaves -- and they know it is coming no matter what we do or don't want in D.C.