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The idea that the War on Terror, particularly in Iraq, is exacerbating the problem isn't exactly an obscure one. Right or wrong, it's pretty common. It'll take time to actually have evidence one way or the other. The fact that the US mainland hasn't been attacked since 9/11 isn't really evidence - it's more like a happy circumstance. Well, there was that shoe bomber's attempt, but that was soon after 9/11.
Though Iraqi Freedom seems to be making the opinion of US policy to drop, we can't know if that has anything to do with a possible upsurge of terrorism. We'd also have to measure it against domestic security policy to counteract that sort of thing like increased airline security and the random searching of crates on cargo ships.
But dismissing the ideas would foolish at this point from a social science hypothesis-testing standpoint, which is good to have because my more biased self is ready to place a bet on the outcome.
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