Quote:
Originally posted by Chewbacca:
This could turn ugly quick. It seems to be a damn if you do, damned if you don't situation for the coalition. Arresting or killing him will just spark even more flames of violent retribution. Fortunately this guy's popularity seems to be marginal and his people are fighting with other Shiite factions. If the Shiite's had a unified front agianst the occupation, it would be a much, much grimmer situation indeed. Perhaps the best approach is to allow some of the other Shiite factions, the ones who are less violently opposed to the Coalition, take care of him. That would allow the puppet governing council and the coalition off the hook for the recourse of taking action.
Thoughts? Opinions? Ect.?
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He has a following of approximately 1,000,000 supporters (10-15%) of the Shi'ite population and around 3,000 hardcore militiamen to back him up. In broader terms, although rightly described as marginal, those figures still represent a powerful group and voice.
Much depends on how the coalition deal with him.
Sadr
wants the US to turn its forces on to his supporters. That will give him the aura of the 'hero resistance fighter', while the inevitable civilian casualties will help to make Shi'ites forget anything good that the coalition might have done for them - and look to him as a figurehead.
Bush/Blair seem to be playing right into his hands.
Trumping up phoney murder charges (a la Saddam Hussein style) was just fantastic postive propaganda for Sadr. Middle-easterners just love a martyr and the parallel to Saddam's time will convince many moderates that the promised democracy was a lie.
Likewise, the over-aggressive measures against his supporters in residential areas will make sure that, if they weren't against the coaliton before, the residents sure as hell are now.
When will Bush and Blair figure out that the military is not always the best option? Cutting a few deals with rival moderate shi'ite groups could have solved the 'problem' of this man. And since they don't appear to care whether they act outside the law on this issue anyway, they should have confined their 'force' to a simple assassination.