Quote:
Originally posted by Barry the Sprout:
Your point about the FT poll is just truly bizzare Skunk. I don't think its untrue, it just makes me wonder why people are going to change their minds - seeing as Brown was just as pro-war as Blair you have to wonder whether or not people are making the decision to support him for the leadership on that basis or not.
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Because of the big picture. You were half way there when you said:
"...but he's on the slippry slope to being chucked for other reasons, or at least thats my opinion." The Iraq war is simply the last in a long line of negative issues to affect Blair's 'favourability rating', it was simply the
'the straw that broke the camel's back'.
Brown on the other hand, having disagreed with Blair (often publicly) on a number of contentious issues is enjoying a slightly higher approval rating - so the Iraq war did not hurt him as badly as it did with Blair.
We saw something similar with Thatcher and Major - both had supported the Poll Tax, but Major had much more room for 'public forgiveness' than his predecessor and so he survived the fallout, even going on to win the 1992 elections.
Perhaps this little snippet
from The Observer might help to clarify my point:
"Asked about levels of satisfaction in members of the Cabinet, those polled put Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, way ahead of any other Cabinet member. Some 88 per cent said that they were satisfied with the job he was doing, with 10 per cent dissatisfied - a satisfaction rating of +78 per cent.
According to the poll, Brown would receive over 60 per cent backing from the party if Blair resigned and he went for the leadership.
John Reid, the Health Secretary, had a satisfaction rating of +28 per cent and John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, 19 per cent. Blair has a rating of just +9 per cent along with Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary. Only the embattled Defence Secretary, Geoff Hoon, has a lower rating of -29 per cent."
Quote:
Originally posted by Barry the Sprout:
And just in general I'm unsure how much this whole Brent East thing is going to concern Blair. Are we really going to see a Liberal landslide over the war?
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As before, it is not simply the Iraq war that led to the Liberal victory (although it certainly helped), but a whole bunch of issues working in tandem.
At this point in time, no-one (including the Liberals) expect the Liberal party to win the next election - but, based on the situation as it currently stands, I think that they will gain a much greater share of the seats at both Labour and the Conservatives' expense - and that Blair will therefore find himself with a much reduced majority in the next parliament with the reduced power that such a prediction would imply.
Of course, if there were yet more 'Blairite' scandals and yet more evidence of mismanagement, fraud, deceit, incompetence and poor economic performance to arise, the future will look even brighter for the Liberals.
And we're already looking at what be the signs of what might prove to be yet another fuel blockade manifesting itself...