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Sir Kenyth · 01-03-2002, 11:29 AM

I think defining the perspective is the key here.

Subsequent tries always have a higher probability for a given task. The straight probability is only for a one try deal. If you try a 50/50 task four times, there's a better chance of you winning it at least once. Statistical concepts are somewhat abstract and fairly malleable. That's why statisticians can pretty much come up with whatever numbers the person who hires them wants.

The first try of ten doors is 1 in 10. The second try can be seen as 1 in 9 or 1 in 5 depending on what logic you use. If it is a subsequent try by the same person, it would be 1 in 5. If a different person made their first try at the remaining doors, it would be 1 in 9. If you look at it from the perspective of both people as a group effort, it again becomes 1 in 5 for the group. Even though the individual chance is 1 in 9. It's strange to think that the exact same situation can produce different probabilities depending on where you look at it from.

Even if a person participated in two entirely different game shows with ten doors each. Since they are separate problems, the chance is 1 in 10 for each respectively. When you take into perspective the history of there being two games played, the chance becomes higher the second game. A total of 20 doors, 2 choices, and 2 prizes. If memory serves, I think this is the situation in which 250s equation is pertinent. A third game would bring the total to 30 doors, 3 choices, and three prize doors. The stats change slightly in favor of the participant each subsequent game, but only if you take into account the historical data. The individual task still has a 1 in 10 chance.

01-03-2002, 11:29 AM	#50
Sir Kenyth Fzoul Chembryl Join Date: August 30, 2001 Location: somewhere Age: 55 Posts: 1,785	I think defining the perspective is the key here. Subsequent tries always have a higher probability for a given task. The straight probability is only for a one try deal. If you try a 50/50 task four times, there's a better chance of you winning it at least once. Statistical concepts are somewhat abstract and fairly malleable. That's why statisticians can pretty much come up with whatever numbers the person who hires them wants. The first try of ten doors is 1 in 10. The second try can be seen as 1 in 9 or 1 in 5 depending on what logic you use. If it is a subsequent try by the same person, it would be 1 in 5. If a different person made their first try at the remaining doors, it would be 1 in 9. If you look at it from the perspective of both people as a group effort, it again becomes 1 in 5 for the group. Even though the individual chance is 1 in 9. It's strange to think that the exact same situation can produce different probabilities depending on where you look at it from. Even if a person participated in two entirely different game shows with ten doors each. Since they are separate problems, the chance is 1 in 10 for each respectively. When you take into perspective the history of there being two games played, the chance becomes higher the second game. A total of 20 doors, 2 choices, and 2 prizes. If memory serves, I think this is the situation in which 250s equation is pertinent. A third game would bring the total to 30 doors, 3 choices, and three prize doors. The stats change slightly in favor of the participant each subsequent game, but only if you take into account the historical data. The individual task still has a 1 in 10 chance. __________________ Master Barbsman and wielder of the razor wit!<br /><br />There are dark angels among us. They present themselves in shining raiment but there is, in their hearts, the blackness of the abyss.