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Simulator-er.... rubish.
This is the mathematical way of figuring it out:
Useful Choices : Possible Choices.
IN the first problem, there are 3 doors, 1 is useful. So the chances of getting the useful option are 1:3 or 33.33...%.
Then One useless choice is removed, thus affecting the entire problem. NO matter what we said before we now have a right and a wrong door. 2 choices, one is useful. therefore the chances of getting the right one are 1:2, or 50%. Therefore it doesnt matter what happens, we have equal chances of being right or wrong.
When all else fails, use maths, its pretty!!
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