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SixOfSpades · 12-08-2001, 06:06 AM

When all else fails, run a simulator.

So I did. My little Pascal program puts a washer/dryer behind one random door, and a goat and a pair of socks behind the other 2 doors. It then picks a random door, and kicks out one of the 2 losing doors.

Out of 1000 trials where the computer stayed put with its first choice, it won the prize 351 times.

Out of 1000 trials where it decided to switch to the remaining, unopened door, it got the washer/dryer 657 times.

The results are counter-intuitive, I know. That's what makes it a PUZZLE! It does make sense, though, when you look at it right: Let's say you pick Door A. Now, there's a 33% chance the prize is behind Door A, and a 66% chance it's behind (Door B OR Door C). These numbers will NOT change. When the gameshow host opens Door C to reveal a broken Rubik's Cube, the chance of Door B OR Door C being the winner is STILL 66%.....except that Door C has been eliminated, leaving that 66% sitting behind Door B.

12-08-2001, 06:06 AM	#137
SixOfSpades Dracolisk Join Date: September 16, 2001 Location: Bellingham, WA, USA Age: 48 Posts: 6,901	When all else fails, run a simulator. So I did. My little Pascal program puts a washer/dryer behind one random door, and a goat and a pair of socks behind the other 2 doors. It then picks a random door, and kicks out one of the 2 losing doors. Out of 1000 trials where the computer stayed put with its first choice, it won the prize 351 times. Out of 1000 trials where it decided to switch to the remaining, unopened door, it got the washer/dryer 657 times. The results are counter-intuitive, I know. That's what makes it a PUZZLE! It does make sense, though, when you look at it right: Let's say you pick Door A. Now, there's a 33% chance the prize is behind Door A, and a 66% chance it's behind (Door B OR Door C). These numbers will NOT change. When the gameshow host opens Door C to reveal a broken Rubik's Cube, the chance of Door B OR Door C being the winner is STILL 66%.....except that Door C has been eliminated, leaving that 66% sitting behind Door B. __________________ Volothamp's Comeuppance Everything you ever needed to know about the entire Baldur's Gate series......except spoilers.