quote:
Originally posted by SixOfSpades:
Actually, Legolas, that Game-Show question was famous probability puzzler for a while.....statistically, your chances of winning the prize are about 66% if you DON'T change from your original guess. It sounds bizarre (because it IS bizarre!), but it's really true. (Just remember that the game-show host KNEW which room held the prize, and all game shows like to keep their money, thank you.)
Actually Six the probability is 66.66...% if you DO change. You pick A (prob 33.33...%) and the host opens either B or C (collectively prob 66.66...%) to reveal a chicken. All that does is let you know which one of B or C it would be if either were the prize. So you are still on a 33.33...% prob on A but if you change to the remainder then your prob is still 66.66...%.
Think of it this way. You are in a room with 100 men and are asked to guess which one is called Peter. You say number 17. The quiz master says:
"Could number 17 and number 53 stay in the room please"
Do you change your mind. Considering it was only a 1% chance of being right first time you are better off changing as you know the quizmaster must leave you the right answer.
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