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Legolas · 12-01-2001, 08:19 PM

quote:
Originally posted by Barry the Sprout:
Applause for Legolas I feel. Nice one mate!

OK, heres a probability one for you. You are playing a game show and the host asks you to pick your prize. There are three doors you can pick and one of them has a prize behind it. The other two have chickens (which, I admit, would be a prize to some people but not to most).

He asks you to guess so you pick one. He then opens one of the other doors to reveal a chicken.

He asks you if you are still sure.

On the basis of pure probability should you stick or change?

There's one I know.
What they want you to think is that yourfirst choice had a 33% probability to be right, and your second a 50% probability.

Of course, that's complete nonsense as your first choice is discarded by the host because he changes the situation completely and lets you chose again. So it does not matter what your first answer was, it is the second choosing that counts. And that one's 50/50.

Here's a what am I riddle

I am a wonderful help to women,
The hope of something to come. I harm
No citizen except my slayer.
Rooted I stand on a high bed.
I am shaggy below. Sometimes the beautiful
Peasant's daughter, an eager-armed,
Proud woman grabs my body,
Rushes my red skin, holds me hard,
Claims my head. The curly-haired
Woman who catches me fast will feel
Our meeting. Her eye will be wet.

12-01-2001, 08:19 PM	#108
Legolas Jack Burton Join Date: March 31, 2001 Location: The zephyr lands beneath the brine. Age: 40 Posts: 5,459	quote: Originally posted by Barry the Sprout: Applause for Legolas I feel. Nice one mate! OK, heres a probability one for you. You are playing a game show and the host asks you to pick your prize. There are three doors you can pick and one of them has a prize behind it. The other two have chickens (which, I admit, would be a prize to some people but not to most). He asks you to guess so you pick one. He then opens one of the other doors to reveal a chicken. He asks you if you are still sure. On the basis of pure probability should you stick or change? There's one I know. What they want you to think is that yourfirst choice had a 33% probability to be right, and your second a 50% probability. Of course, that's complete nonsense as your first choice is discarded by the host because he changes the situation completely and lets you chose again. So it does not matter what your first answer was, it is the second choosing that counts. And that one's 50/50. Here's a what am I riddle I am a wonderful help to women, The hope of something to come. I harm No citizen except my slayer. Rooted I stand on a high bed. I am shaggy below. Sometimes the beautiful Peasant's daughter, an eager-armed, Proud woman grabs my body, Rushes my red skin, holds me hard, Claims my head. The curly-haired Woman who catches me fast will feel Our meeting. Her eye will be wet.