I've been away for the weekend so I've missed most of this. For what it's worth I would like to make a few points.
Firstly, there is no question of a 'physical' war between the US and China. Both Governments are aware of the consequences of this. In the long term the US can 'punish' China economically and this is what will ensure the safe return of the 24 US servicemen. In the short term, however, China holds all of the cards and will use them to maximise the embarrassment to the US government. If a Chinese plane made an emergency landing in California wouldn't the CIA want to ask the crew a few questions?
Secondly, there is no question of the US being 'caught' spying. Everyone knows that they do it (as do many other nations). Part of the job that the spyplane does is to 'provoke' a reaction from the Chinese radar and other defence facilities to see how they react. As to what happened, we don't know yet, but my guess is that the Chinese pilot was doing what many of the fighter pilots do. That is, he was flying alongside the spyplane making his presence known. Unfortunately he made a pilot error and paid with his life. I have seen film of a British pilot flying wingtip to wingtip with a Russian spyplane and waving to the Russian pilot.
Finally, if as an American you hold the view that 'we are not interested in what happens in the rest of the world' that's fine - it's your opinion. Unfortunately if you are the US president and you hold that view you should not be suprised that when an incident such as this happens you are 'ill equipped' to deal with it quickly and quietly. When George W won the election I was struck by how little experience he had in foreign affairs and that foreign policy had paid virtually no part in the US election campaign. I had hoped that, like Reagan did, he would surround himself with people in his Government who had the requisite knowledge and experience. Unfortunately it would not appear that he has done this. His father was US ambassador to China and head of the CIA, I trust he asked his opinion.
You cannot deal with countries such as China without understanding their mindset, they think 'differently' to western nations. If you blunder in demanding things you will receive a cold response. As has been mentioned by others the concept of 'saving face' is very important to many nations in the Far East. On the day that China sent a high ranking member of their government to meet with the Bush administration for the first time the US changed the status of China to 'competitor', hardly a diplomatic move.
Much of the posturing of the respective Governments is for internal consumption in China and the US. The Chinese press will be projecting China as being the victim of 'The Great Satan', meanwhile China is a soft target for George W, they cannot harm the US militarily (without suffering hugely) or, in the short term, economically. In the long term though China and the US need each other economically. China is a huge, largely untapped market for the US multinationals and it is Big Business which sets the agenda with the US government.
I'm sure this crisis will be resolved soon. The US will not apologise and China will claim victory whatever happens but there will be a form of words from both sides 'expressing regret' over the incident.
In the end it will be done through diplomacy, it's only a pity that it was allowed to escalate in the way it was. I hope that George W is on a steep learning curve.
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