Charlie:
I started ToSC right after escaping Candlekeep and before beginning chapter 7. It seems like I had a problem too, initially, but was a long time ago.
You have fully explored the farm area north of Baldur's Gate (where the zombies are). I think that maybe after I did that area Ulgoth's Beard apeared north of there. As far as I can remember you can't access Ulgoth's Beard from Baldur's Gate directly--you have to go through the farm country.
Hope it helps.
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