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... , or am I just plain unlucky in what the game threw at me so far?
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I'd say you are unlucky. Juggernauts are very rare at arnika road, even at higher levels. I have killed them with a level 8 party before, but only with a bard with unlimited insanity spell (which works quite well against them)
A small note to your party: i'd rather take bishop + mage instead of bishop + priest. You still have all protection spells, but two offensive casters. Makes a big difference when you have fireball and iceball with two characters at this stage.
Run away from them, and rest in a save spot (near the house, at the chest, or back in the monastary). After resting 3 times, the monster will have changed.