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It's a 5 tumbler lock. What do those horizontal marks on the tumblers mean?
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Nuttin'.
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Some are etched higher than others. I thought this might be a clue that might help to discover which ones have to be up first.
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Nope. Just visual variety.
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Or it may be totally random, and every attempt has some probability.
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Dat's it. And, with a Locks skill of 37, that probability (of not dropping at least one of the other pins) is pretty low. The failure-chance-vs.-Locks-skill relationship seems to be logarithmic: low skill levels--like, below 50--have a really crappy chance of opening even a 4-pin lock in any reasonable amount of time, and the difference between Locks=30 and Locks=40 doesn't seem to mean much. With a Locks skill of 37 against a 5-pin lock, you're looking at a typical time-to-open of literally hundreds of pin touches. Buy some knock picks, or build up someone's Knock-Knock skill, or come back when the character's Locks skill is more like 60-70.