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Take the way from the horse to the lake shore through the dark forest. More precisely: there are three ways from the horse: to the east gate (wrong), to the west gate (wrong), and a direct way to the lake (correct). Juba is usally there after your getting the quest but do not forget that Juba is actively searching for you, therefore, Juba can be anywhere later on. In that case, ignore him and do other things. Juba will find you in the end.
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