This math is completely made up, but I think it's about accurate. I'd like to say that 70% of crabs *HAVE* shells, and that, when killed, 50% of those will drop them. It is in the second figure where pickpocketing becomes useful, for, though you'll still run into the 30% that have no shells, you won't lose the ones that just don't appear.
My final resolution? After getting rebreathers for all 6 characters and helmets for only 4, I got bored and left my two warlocks back at Brimloch, and did collassium with just the 4 fighters (paladin/samurai/ninja/assassin). The samurai knew enough Sun to be useful, the Ninja knew Moon all the way up so he could do the teleport/call of home thing. There really wasn't much to fight in Collassium, it was easily the shortest "dungeon" in the game (it took me like 30 min... I spent twice that much time stealing shells so I could go there!).
After it was over I /gladly/ sold off my rebreathers & helms, 'cause I never found anything else of note underwater.
BTW, the leprechaun thing is another known bug... unavoidable
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