Hm. Well, none of those should affect Cernd's willingness to stay in the party, though if Virtue is installed, I don't know what Virtue values would make Neutral characters want to leave. Why isn't Virtue listed in your list of mods?
Advice: Save a separate copy of your game, and don't overwrite it. Next, load your game up and, instead of talking to Cernd to bring him into the party, Ctrl-Q him (you'll need to have the CheatKeys enabled). This might circumvent his strange dialogue flaw, though it might also bug up his dialogue for the rest of the game (I had that happen to me with Jan once). So I wouldn't recommend it for those who want to use Cernd throughout the game--but then, who the heck does? (Then again, seeing as how you have Weimer's Unbalanced Shapeshifter installed, I could be wrong--but then again, you also have Refinements installed, which has been installed after Ease-Of-Use, so it will either mitigate Weimer's version....or stack with it.)
You'll have to uninstall Shadow Thief Improvements if you think there's a chance you might want to work for Bodhi ever again.
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Volothamp's Comeuppance
Everything you ever needed to know about the entire Baldur's Gate series......except spoilers.
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