[IronDragon]

Well the first to get voted off are always those that are both weak AND annoying. Which means the first two to go would be:
Aeire
Jan

Anomen may be annoying but he is strong so would survive at least until the merge.

Those in danger in of getting voted off next:
Edwin
Haer'Dalis
Imoen
Viconia
Nalia
Yoshimo
None of these are terribly strong, survival at this stage would depend on combination of their intelligence and charisma.

The four I think likely to go:
Viconia - She is neither a nice person or strong one, Making her a liability for her tribe. Worse her attitude and her mouth would get her voted out fast.
Nalia - she has similar problems to Viconia, she can be way to pushy and far to opinionated. All in all she is not the best person to form alliances with.
Imoen - No reason to hate her, no reason to love her.
Yoshimo - because Edwin is smart enough to work against him and Haer’Dalis has enough charisma to last until the merge

So at the merge we have
Anomen
Cernd
Jaheira
Valygar
Keldorn
Haer'Dalis
Korgan
Mazzy
Minsc
Edwin

Once the tribes merge physical strength becomes a liability and one’s alliances are what help you.

Korgan would be kicked out and kicked out fast. He is loud, rude, annoying, abrasive and generally unpleasant. Who would want him around if they didn’t have to have him? Who would be foolish enough to form an alliance with a chaotic evil individual in the first place?

The next two in danger:
Cernd - I can’t see this guy forming any sort of alliance.
Minsc - Minsc is just too strong physically and therefor a significnat threat to the others, he woudl not survive in this portion of the game.


I do see an alliance shaping up featuring Mazzy, Keldorn, Valygar and Anomen. With a solid voting block of 4 the next three voted out block would be:
Edwin
Haer’Dalis
Jaheiar

Of the final four (Mazzy, Keldorn, Valygar and Anomen) I would have to pick Valygar as the winner. He is strong enough to survive the first half but not so strong to be a particular threat in the second. He isn’t particularly annoying and would be loyal to his alliance; he is generally inoffensive (except to magic users) so no one will outright hate him. He is also morally flexible enough to backstab one or two of his competitors to get ahead.

Jury break down: Cernd, Jaheira and Minsc would likely vote for Valygar over any of the others, his status as ranger would appeal to all three of these jury memebers.
Even if Valygar backstabbed Edwin at some point then Edwin would still likely vote for Valygar because I think even Edwin would appreciate someone who could betray him and do it with style, besides the other three possibilities Keldorn, Mazzy and Anomen) are annoyingly wholesome and Edwin would never stoop that low. That is four votes and enough to win.
If Mazzy did not make it to the final two she would also likely vote for Valygar.