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from the roleplaying perspective you're going for, which would a greedy dwarf side with? (ignoring all potential rewards for taking either side)

1) A group that openly admits in it's very title that it's comprised of thieves and seems to want to help you, so much as to even lower their price for helping you find Imoen. Profit can't be that important if they're willing to deal with you like that, even tho they ARE thieves... which means, cutting into your profit, but also possibly offering you a good advantage by accepting you and not giving you resistance at every turn. (which is the impression Yoshi give you when he speaks of his relations with the Shadow Thieves; They don't much appreciate a freelance thief walking around)

2) A group that's completely shady and secretive, so much as to not even include you in their main plans. They have a very "Do what we tell you, or else" attitude, which isn't something an evil character is much inclined to appreciate... tho if it's going to help eliminate the group of thieves that 'run the city' and get you in on the side of the victors, it may be worth tolerating... for now. Only until you're strong enough to either branch out on your own, or take them down and run things yourself.

Going from what you know of the two groups at this point in the game... it's a toss up for your character type I'd say... it's all what your character would think is bast for him, and ONLY him