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Originally posted by Ilander:
quote:
Originally posted by Luvian:
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The colony is 40 years old. At first they had enough material to create 10k child. They were supposed to have a reproduction phase when they reached 20, and then another when those new child would reach 20 too. That's 2 generation. But from those 10k, 40 years later, there more than 100k people. We also learn that they are at their 4th generation. This mean they probably start having sex when they are 10 years old! or they wouldn't have time to have 4 generations in 40 years. To get to 100k people from 10k in 40 years, every female would also need to have a lot of children...)
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So, I've made this my problem of the day...and here's the assumptions the author made, if they ever broke out a calculator and figured things out...
That third generation is where such a population really starts to take off...
The problems with this kind of population, besides the ethical and logistic ones (which are significant!) is that it is increasingly female, and the average age goes lower and lower.
Incidentally, for times past the third generation, I haven't bothered to work out, but it seems like a fun little exercise...just don't try to extend it indefinitely, or you'll have to use differential equations, and try and factor in death rates! [/QUOTE]Well, you're certainly better at math than me, it's been a while... I tried calculating it too but gave up. At first when I started I also gave 15 year as the minimum for reproduction. You need to factor in puberty, and even with futuristic medecine, it seem to me that childbirth younger than that would be really dangerous.
But that was before I got to the part where it was said they were on their 4th generation. Since it's 40 year later, and for it to be 4 generation, you can't go higher than 10 year. That's without even considering pregrancy period, if you include it they probably would have to be 9 year old, that's ridicullous!
Generation 1 get to 9, get pregrant, give birth at 10. Generation 2 is born, age to 9, get pregnant and give birth at 10, that's 2 generation and we're 20 year in. Two more cycle like that and the 4th generation has just been born when the ship get there.
[ 01-24-2006, 02:23 PM: Message edited by: Luvian ]