I disagree, Thoran, it is fairly clear that the Soviets were planning a pre-emptive attack on Germany. Consider that about 90% of the Soviet Army was near the Soviet border. The Soviets had to rebuild their army almost from scratch after the first few months of Operation Barbarossa (German invasion), losing 4 million soldiers to casaulties and captured in a matter of weeks. Also consider Stalin's lack of commands and indeed, of public visibility, in the first week of the German invasion. It is widely accepted among military scholars that Stalin suffered a nervous breakdown because of his inability to fathom that Hitler struck first. Stalin was much impressed with his own intelligence and cunning compared the rest of the world ("egomaniac" does not begin to describe his neuroses), and it was more than his psyche could handle.
Getting back to the original issue, the question of whether the Allies would have won WWII if Hitler had not "ticked off" Stalin is fundamentally flawed. The Non-Aggression Pact was never more than a convenience to either side; it ensured the security of one border for an indeterminate length of time, providing Hitler the security to act aggressively, and Stalin the time the Soviets needed to build their military-industrial output - the division of Poland was a nice bonus for each of them.
There were two real reasons Germany and the USSR signed the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact. First, both sides wished to buy time. Neither was suitably ready for war with each other (and Germany was not expecting a declaration of war by the Western powers following their invasion of Poland, in light of their success in Czechoslovakia), which is why the secret part of the agreement provided for the
peaceful division of Poland between the two powers. Second, their historical relationship (beginning in the mid-1930s) grew out of the industrial and trade-related constraints on both powers - on the Germans because of the Versailles Treaty, and on the Soviets because they couldn't trade or otherwise acquire military materiel and expertise from wary European powers.
Previous to the Non-Aggression Pact, the Soviets provided tank testing areas, land for chemical and munitions plants forbidden under the Versailles Treaty, and raw materials in exchange for organizational and logistical advice (recall that 90% of the Soviet general staff had been purged, along with the majority of effective officers) and military technology (plans for tanks and subs). This co-operation was flawed (money issues, trust issues in the withholding of certain designs, industrial efficiency), but provided the basis for negotiations and continued recognition of commonality of interests.
Realistically, the ideology of the Nazis and the Soviets almost "fated" the countries to fight. Any reading of the diseased ramblings of
Mein Kampf will indicate the absolute hatred and disdain felt by Hitler toward an "inferior race", the Slavs (the dominant ethnic group in Soviet Russia). Additionally, the Nazi policy of lebenschraum ("living space" for the supposedly superior Aryan race) explicitly mentioned the Slavs as a group that must give up much of their land to the Aryans. The Soviets trusted no one, not even themselves, and were certainly aware of Hitler's aspirations. Moreover, Stalin & Co had their own ideas about world domination.
Therefore, Hitler and Stalin "ticking off" each other was a foregone conclusion. If you wish to speculate on the importance of the
timing of the official breach between them, go ahead.
A quick note on my qualifications to pontificate - I graduated two years ago in Modern European History "with distinction" (defined as GPA over 6.0, a B+; was actually closer to 7.5, in my case). I've taken several courses focusing entirely on World War II, its causes, politics, economics, impact, etc. I also wrote a 20 page full research paper in a seminar course on Weimar & Nazi Germany on Nazi-Soviet co-operation prior to the signing of the Non-Aggression Pact. The paper got an A+, and is one of the best pieces of work I've ever written. I would be pleased to provide a copy of the paper and bibliography via email attachment if anyone cares to PM me about it. [img]smile.gif[/img]
[ 07-01-2005, 02:49 AM: Message edited by: Aerich ]