There are only three possibilities, and they are all equally as likely.
The player picks empty locket one. The game host picks empty locket number two. Switching will win the car.
The player picks empty locket number two. The game host picks empty locket number one. Switching will win the car.
The player picks the prize. The game host picks either of the empty lockets. Switching will lose.
You win 2/3 of the time by switching, it is pretty straight forward.
Draw a probability tree, use the Bayes' Theorm, or (or better yet 'and') search "Monty Hall Problem" on google and Wikipedia if you don't belive me.
|